Monetary Rules When Economic Behaviour Changes
This paper examines the implications of changes in economic behaviour for simple inflation-forecast–based monetary rules of the type currently used at two inflation-targeting central banks. Three types of changes in economic behaviour are considered, changes that are motivated by developments in monetary and fiscal policy in the 1990s: changes in monetary policy credibility, changes in the slope of the Phillips curve, and changes in the degree of income stabilization from automatic fiscal transfers. Analysis is conducted using stochastic simulations of a model of the Canadian economy. Two questions are posed: First, what are the implications of these types of changes in economic behaviour for the stochastic properties of the economy? Second, how are efficient inflation-forecast–based rules affected by these changes in behaviour? Perhaps the most interesting results are with respect to credibility. When monetary credibility increases, the central bank can attain more stable output and inflation. But increasing credibility is a double-edged sword. To reap its benefits, the central bank must, in general, adjust its reaction function. If it does not, volatility can increase.
|Date of creation:||1999|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada|
Phone: 613 782-8845
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Richard Black & David Rose, 1997. "Canadian Policy Analysis Model: CPAM," Staff Working Papers 97-16, Bank of Canada.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer, 1988. "The New Keynsesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 1-82.
- Guy Debelle & Douglas Laxton, 1997.
"Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 249-282, June.
- Douglas Laxton & Guy Debelle, 1996. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Working Papers 96/111, International Monetary Fund.
- Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998.
"Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Willi Leibfritz & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1994. "Fiscal Policy, Government Debt and Economic Performance," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 144, OECD Publishing.
- Laurence Ball, 1997.
"Efficient rules for monetary policy,"
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
G97/3, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Gregory D. Hess & Kwanho Shin, 1995.
"Some intranational evidence on output-inflation tradeoffs,"
Research Working Paper
95-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Hess, Gregory D. & Shin, Kwanho, 1999. "Some Intranational Evidence On Output-Inflation Trade-Offs," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 187-203, June.
- Douglas Laxton & Peter B. Clark & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetry in the U.S. Output-Inflation Nexus; Issues and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 95/76, International Monetary Fund.
- Andrew C. Caplin & Daniel F. Spulber, 1987.
"Menu Costs and the Neutrality of Money,"
NBER Working Papers
2311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
- Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1997. "Inflation/Output Variance Trade-Offs and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 214-34, May.
- Andrew T.. Levin & Volker Wieland & John Williams, 1999.
"Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty,"
in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 263-318
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew T. Levin & Volker W. Wieland & John C. Williams, 1998. "Robustness of simple monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 1998. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 6570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Willem H. Buiter & Marcus H. Miller, 1983. "Costs and Benefits of an Anti-Inflationary Policy: Questions and Issues," NBER Working Papers 1252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Douglas Laxton & Guy M Meredith & David Rose, 1994.
"Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activityon Inflation; Evidence and Policy Implications,"
IMF Working Papers
94/139, International Monetary Fund.
- Douglas Laxton & Guy Meredith & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity on Inflation: Evidence and Policy Implications," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 344-374, June.
- Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1994.
"Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 247-61, March.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1992. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 4089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ball, L. & Mankiw, N.G., 1992. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1602, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997.
"Inflation forecasts and monetary policy,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 653-686.
- Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984.
"Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons,"
NBER Working Papers
1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John P. Judd & Brian Motley, 1992. "Controlling inflation with an interest rate instrument," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-22.
- Conlon, John R & Liu, Christina Y, 1997. "Can More Frequent Price Changes Lead to Price Inertia? Nonneutralities in a State-Dependent Pricing Context," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(4), pages 893-914, November.
- Jonathan Millar, 1997. "The Effects of Budget Rules on Fiscal Performance and Macroeconomic Stabilization," Staff Working Papers 97-15, Bank of Canada.
- George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
- Peter Clark & Douglas Laxton & David Rose, 1996. "Asymmetry in the U.S. Output-Inflation Nexus," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 216-251, March.
- P Clark & D Laxton, 1997. "Phillips Curves," CEP Discussion Papers dp0344, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1994.
"Restraining Yourself: Fiscal Rules and Stabilization,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1029, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Barry J. Eichengreen & Tamim Bayoumi, 1994. "Restraining Yourself; Fiscal Rules and Stabilization," IMF Working Papers 94/82, International Monetary Fund.
- DeFina, Robert H, 1991. "International Evidence on a New Keynesian Theory of the Output-Inflation Trade-Off," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 410-22, August.
- Steven Braun, 1984. "Productivity and the NIIRU (and other Phillips curve issues)," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Agathe Côté & Jocelyn Jacob & John Nelmes & Miles Whittingham, 1996. "Inflation expectations and Real Return Bonds," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1996(Summer), pages 41-53.
- Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
- Robert Amano & Paul Fenton & David Tessier & Simon van Norden, 1996. "The credibility of monetary policy: a survey of the literature with some simple applications to Caanda," Meeting papers 9610001, EconWPA.
- Canzoneri, Matthew B., 1980. "Labor contracts and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 241-255, April.
- Marie-Claude Montplaisir, 1997. "The maturity structure of household financial assets and liabilities," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1996(Winter), pages 33-46.
- Frenkel, Jacob A & Razin, Assaf, 1986. "Fiscal Policies in the World Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 564-94, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:99-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.