IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Some Intranational Evidence On Output-Inflation Trade-Offs


  • Hess, Gregory D.
  • Shin, Kwanho


In a seminal paper, Lucas (1973) provided the theoretical relationship between aggregate demand and real output based on relative price confusion at the individual market level. Ball, Mankiw, and Romer (BMR, 1988) derive the same relation using a New Keynesian framework. Even though both theories predict a positive relationship between nominal shocks and cyclical movements in real output, they are distinguished by two notable differences. First, according to New Keynesian theory, nominal shocks have a smaller effect on real output for high inflation countries since prices are adjusted more frequently. Lucas' model has no implication for the level of inflation. Second, according to New Keynesian theory, a higher variance of relative prices, and hence an increase in uncertainty, will lead to a smaller effect of nominal shocks on real output since prices are set for shorter periods and adjusted more frequently. Lucas' model, however, makes the exact opposite prediction since a high variance of relative prices leads to more confusion in the market level equilibrium. By emphasizing the first implication of the New Keynesian theory, BMR obtain strong evidence supporting their model using international data. ; In this paper we concentrate on the second difference between the New Keynesian theory and Lucas' model which, we believe, distinguishes one from the other more clearly. We derive the individual market level equilibrium relationship as well as the aggregate level one for the Lucas model. We demonstrate, similarly to BMR, that both the Lucas model and New Keynesian models make similar predictions for the response between nominal and real variables, even at the disaggregate level. ; We estimate, using cross-sectional data for the U.S., the crucial parameters of the relationship between aggregate nominal demand shocks and real output. The data we use to estimate the market level model are nominal and real output, and inflation for 50 states plus the District of Columbia
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Hess, Gregory D. & Shin, Kwanho, 1999. "Some Intranational Evidence On Output-Inflation Trade-Offs," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 187-203, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:3:y:1999:i:02:p:187-203_01

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Evstigneev, I. V. & Taksar, M., 1995. "Stochastic equilibria on graphs, II," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 383-406.
    2. Majumdar, Mukul & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1987. "Optimal growth in a stochastic environment: Some sensitivity and turnpike results," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 116-133, October.
    3. Milgrom, Paul & Shannon, Chris, 1994. "Monotone Comparative Statics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 157-180, January.
    4. Bewley, Truman, 1982. "An integration of equilibrium theory and turnpike theory," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2-3), pages 233-267, September.
    5. Flam, S.D. & Evstigneev, I.V., 1997. "The Turnpike Property and the Central Limit Theorem in Stochastic Models of Economic Dynamics," Norway; Department of Economics, University of Bergen 171, Department of Economics, University of Bergen.
    6. Bewley, Truman F., 1981. "Stationary equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 265-295, April.
    7. Amir, Rabah, 1996. "Sensitivity analysis of multisector optimal economic dynamics," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 123-141.
    8. Polterovich, V M, 1983. "Equilibrium Trajectories of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 693-729, May.
    9. McKenzie, Lionel W., 2005. "Optimal economic growth, turnpike theorems and comparative dynamics," Handbook of Mathematical Economics,in: K. J. Arrow & M.D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, edition 2, volume 3, chapter 26, pages 1281-1355 Elsevier.
    10. Araujo, A & Scheinkman, Jose A, 1977. "Smoothness, Comparative Dynamics, and the Turnpike Property," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(3), pages 601-620, April.
    11. Amir, R. & Evstigneev, I. V., 2000. "A functional central limit theorem for equilibrium paths of economic dynamics," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 81-99, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Robert Amano & Don Coletti & Tiff Macklem, 1998. "Monetary rules when economic behaviour changes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    2. Emmanuel De Veirman, 2009. "What Makes the Output-Inflation Trade-Off Change? The Absence of Accelerating Deflation in Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1117-1140, September.
    3. W. Wascher & Palle S. Andersen, 1999. "Sacrifice ratios and the conduct of monetary policy in conditions of low inflation," BIS Working Papers 82, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. O'Reilly, B., 1998. "The Benefits of Low Inflation: Taking Shock "A nickel ain't worth a dime any more" [Yogi Berra]," Technical Reports 83, Bank of Canada.
    5. Andrejs Bessonovs & Olegs Tkacevs, 2016. "Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Activity and Its Variation Over Time in Latvia," Working Papers 2016/03, Latvijas Banka.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:3:y:1999:i:02:p:187-203_01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.