IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocatr/83.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Benefits of Low Inflation: Taking Shock "A nickel ain't worth a dime any more" [Yogi Berra]

Author

Listed:
  • Brian O'Reilly

Abstract

This paper surveys the empirical literature on the benefits of low inflation emphasizing contributions since 1990. It follows the framework of a section in the Bank's 1990 Annual Report, "The Benefits of Price Stability." This framework looks at the costs of inflation, or the benefits of price stability, in the context of four themes: inflation creates uncertainty about the future; there are costs of having to cope with inflation; inflation affects equity and fairness; and 'living with inflation' is no answer.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian O'Reilly, 1998. "The Benefits of Low Inflation: Taking Shock "A nickel ain't worth a dime any more" [Yogi Berra]," Technical Reports 83, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocatr:83
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/tr83.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Crosby, Mark & Otto, Glenn, 2000. "Inflation and the Capital Stock," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 236-253, May.
    2. Duguay, Pierre, 1994. "Empirical evidence on the strength of the monetary transmission mechanism in Canada: An aggregate approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 39-61, February.
    3. Victor Zarnowitz & Louis A. Lambros, 1983. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," NBER Working Papers 1171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Fischer, Stanley, 1981. "Towards an understanding of the costs of inflation: II," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 5-41, January.
    5. Nicholas Ricketts & David Rose, 1995. "Inflation, Learning and Monetary Policy Regimes in the G-7 Economies," Macroeconomics 9506004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Feb 1996.
    6. Anil K Kashyap, 1995. "Sticky Prices: New Evidence from Retail Catalogs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 245-274.
    7. David E. Altig, 1992. "An ebbing tide lowers all boats: monetary policy, inflation, and social justice," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 28(Q II), pages 14-22.
    8. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-748, September.
    9. R. F. Lucas, 1989. "The Bank of Canada and Zero Inflation: A New Cross of Gold?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 15(1), pages 84-93, March.
    10. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    11. Greenwood, Jeremy & Huffman, Gregory W., 1987. "A dynamic equilibrium model of inflation and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 203-228, March.
    12. Douglas Laxton & Guy Meredith & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity on Inflation: Evidence and Policy Implications," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 344-374, June.
    13. Gillman, Max, 1993. "The welfare cost of inflation in a cash-in-advance economy with costly credit," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 97-115, February.
    14. Clark, Todd E, 1997. "Cross-country Evidence on Long-Run Growth and Inflation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 70-81, January.
    15. Christina D. Romer, 1996. "Inflation and the Growth Rate of Output," NBER Working Papers 5575, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Robert J. Shiller, 1997. "Why Do People Dislike Inflation?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 13-70, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Eckstein, Zvi & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Seigniorage and the welfare cost of inflation: Evidence from an intertemporal model of money and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 389-410, June.
    18. Jones, Larry E. & Manuelli, Rodolfo E., 1995. "Growth and the effects of inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1405-1428, November.
    19. Evans, Martin & Wachtel, Paul, 1993. "Inflation Regimes and the," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 475-511, August.
    20. Martin Evans & Paul Wachtel, 1993. "Inflation regimes and the sources of inflation uncertainty," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 475-520.
    21. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Aug), pages 9-110.
    22. Devereux, Michael, 1989. "A Positive Theory of Inflation and Inflation Variance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(1), pages 105-116, January.
    23. De Gregorio, Jose, 1993. "Inflation, taxation, and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 271-298, June.
    24. Blinder, Alan S, 1991. "Why Are Prices Sticky? Preliminary Results from an Interview Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 89-96, May.
    25. Hess, Gregory D. & Shin, Kwanho, 1999. "Some Intranational Evidence On Output-Inflation Trade-Offs," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 187-203, June.
    26. David M. Cutler & Lawrence F. Katz, 1991. "Macroeconomic Performance and the Disadvantaged," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 1-74.
    27. Bev Dahlby, 1992. "Price Adjustment in an Automobile Insurance Market: A Test of the Sheshinski-Weiss Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(3), pages 564-583, August.
    28. Akerlof, George A & Yellen, Janet L, 1985. "Can Small Deviations from Rationality Make Significant Differences to Economic Equilibria?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 708-720, September.
    29. Haslag, Joseph H, 1998. "Monetary Policy, Banking, and Growth," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(3), pages 489-500, July.
    30. Seamus Hogan, 1998. "What Does Downward Nominal-Wage Rigidity Imply for Monetary Policy?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 24(4), pages 513-525, December.
    31. Eytan Sheshinski & Yoram Weiss, 1977. "Inflation and Costs of Price Adjustment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 44(2), pages 287-303.
    32. William Roberds, 1994. "Changes in payments technology and the welfare cost of inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 79(May), pages 1-12.
    33. David Mayes & Bryan Chapple, 1995. "The costs and benefits of disinflation: a critique of the sacrifice ration," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 58, March.
    34. Marta Campillo & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1997. "Why Does Inflation Differ across Countries?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 335-362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Daniel Tsiddon, 1993. "The (Mis)Behaviour of the Aggregate Price Level," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(4), pages 889-902.
    36. Eldar Shafir & Peter Diamond & Amos Tversky, 1997. "Money Illusion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 341-374.
    37. Taylor, John B., 1981. "On the relation between the variability of inflation and the average inflation rate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 57-85, January.
    38. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1997. "A framework for the analysis of moderate inflations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 45-65, June.
    39. Alvin L. Marty & Daniel L. Thornton, 1995. "Is there a case for \\"moderate\\" inflation?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 27-38.
    40. Daniel L. Thornton, 1996. "The costs and benefits of price stability: an assessment of Howitt's rule," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 78(Mar), pages 23-38.
    41. Lane, Philip R., 1997. "Inflation in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 327-347, May.
    42. Ruth Judson & Athanasios Orphanides, 1999. "Inflation, Volatility and Growth," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 117-138, April.
    43. Gregory D. Hess & Charles S. Morris, 1996. "The long-run costs of moderate inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 81(Q II), pages 71-88.
    44. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
    45. Marquis, Milton H & Reffett, Kevin L, 1994. "New Technology Spillovers into the Payment System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1123-1138, September.
    46. Mike Joyce, 1995. "Modelling UK Inflation Uncertainty: The Impact of News and the Relationship with Inflation," Bank of England working papers 30, Bank of England.
    47. David E.W. Laidler, 1991. "An Overview," Introductory Chapters, in: The Golden Age of the Quantity Theory, Princeton University Press.
    48. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1999. "Inflation And The Distribution Of Price Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 188-196, May.
    49. Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1994. "A sticky-price manifesto," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 127-151, December.
    50. Fischer, S., 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," Working papers 580, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    51. Stanley Fischer, 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 329-379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    52. Lavoie, C., 1995. "Fluctuations economiques dans un environnment de stabilite des prix," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 1995-1, Department of Finance Canada.
    53. Laurence Ball & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1990. "Inflation and Uncertainty at Long and Short Horizons," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 215-254.
    54. Dotsey, Michael & Ireland, Peter, 1996. "The welfare cost of inflation in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 29-47, February.
    55. Norman Cameron & Derek Hum & Wayne Simpson, 1996. "Stylized Facts and Stylized Illusions: Inflation and Productivity Revisited," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 152-162, February.
    56. CHARLES T. Carlstrom & WILLIAM T. Gavin, 1993. "Zero Inflation: Transition Costs And Shoe Leather Benefits," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 11(1), pages 9-17, January.
    57. Darrel Cohen & Kevin Hassett & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1999. "Inflation and the User Cost of Capital: Does Inflation Still Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability, pages 199-234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    58. Samantha Johnson, 1993. "The costs of inflation revisited," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 56, March.
    59. Simon Hall & Mark Walsh & Anthony Yates, 1997. "How do UK companies set prices?," Bank of England working papers 67, Bank of England.
    60. Cosimano, Thomas F & Jansen, Dennis W, 1988. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 409-421, August.
    61. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1992. "Prediction in dynamic models with time-dependent conditional variances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 91-113.
    62. Christopher J. Neely & Christopher J. Waller, 1997. "A Benefit‐Cost Analysis Of Disinflation," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 15(1), pages 50-64, January.
    63. Stanners, W, 1993. "Is Low Inflation an Important Condition for High Growth?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 79-107, March.
    64. John Ammer, 1994. "Inflation, inflation risk, and stock returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 464, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    65. V. V. Chari & Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli, 1995. "The growth effects of monetary policy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 19(Fall), pages 18-32.
    66. Zarnowitz, Victor & Lambros, Louis A, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 591-621, June.
    67. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
    68. Prakash Loungani & Phillip Swagel, 1995. "Supply-side sources of inflation: evidence from OECD countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 515, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    69. Mr. Ales Bulir & Ms. Anne Marie Gulde, 1995. "Inflation and Income Distribution: Further Evidenceon Empirical Links," IMF Working Papers 1995/086, International Monetary Fund.
    70. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1990. "Deflating the case for zero inflation," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 14(Sum), pages 2-11.
    71. Stanley Fischer, 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," NBER Working Papers 3702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    72. Grimes, Arthur, 1991. "The effects of inflation on growth: some international evidence," MPRA Paper 68526, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    73. Caporale, Tony & McKiernan, Barbara, 1997. "High and variable inflation: Further evidence on the Friedman hypothesis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 65-68, January.
    74. Nicholas Ricketts & David Rose, "undated". "Inflation, Learning And Monetary Policy Regimes In The G-7 Economies," Staff Working Papers 95-6, Bank of Canada.
    75. Martin S. Feldstein, 1997. "The Costs and Benefits of Going from Low Inflation to Price Stability," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 123-166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    76. Robson, Arthur J & Wooders, Myrna, 1997. "On the Growth-Maximizing Distribution of Income," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 511-526, August.
    77. Nicholas Ricketts, 1996. "Real short-term interest rates and expected inflation: Measurement and interpretation," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1996(Summer), pages 23-39.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christopher Ragan, 1998. "On the Believable Benefits of Low Inflation," Staff Working Papers 98-15, Bank of Canada.
    2. Dotsey, Michael & Ireland, Peter, 1996. "The welfare cost of inflation in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 29-47, February.
    3. Davis, George K & Kanago, Bryce E, 2000. "The Level and Uncertainty of Inflation: Results from OECD Forecasts," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 58-72, January.
    4. Joseph H. Haslag, 1997. "Output, growth, welfare, and inflation: a survey," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 11-21.
    5. Stanley Fischer, 1996. "Why are central banks pursuing long-run price stability?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 7-34.
    6. Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal & Valentinyi, Akos, 1999. "Inflation, Growth, and Credit Services," Transition Economics Series 13, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    7. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," MPRA Paper 26908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Javier Andrés & Ignacio Hernando & J. David López-Salido, 1999. "Assessing the benefits of price stability: The international experience," Estudios Económicos, Banco de España, number 69.
    9. Tsyplakov Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," EERC Working Paper Series 10/09e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    10. Allan Crawford & Marcel Kasumovich, 1996. "Does Inflation Uncertainty Vary with the Level of Inflation?," Staff Working Papers 96-09, Bank of Canada.
    11. da Silva Filho, Tito Nícias Teixeira, 2005. "Is there too much certainty when measuring uncertainty," MPRA Paper 16383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Berument, Hakan & Yalcin, Yeliz & Yildirim, Julide, 2009. "The effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation: Stochastic volatility in mean model within a dynamic framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1201-1207, November.
    13. Broto Carmen & Ruiz Esther, 2009. "Testing for Conditional Heteroscedasticity in the Components of Inflation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-30, May.
    14. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
    15. Helmut Wagner, 2005. "Globalization and financial instability: Challenges for exchange rate and monetary policy," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(7), pages 616-638, July.
    16. Kajal Lahiri & Fushang Liu, 2006. "ARCH Models for Multi-period Forecast Uncertainty: A Reality Check Using a Panel of Density Forecasts," Advances in Econometrics, in: Econometric Analysis of Financial and Economic Time Series, pages 321-363, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    17. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Nityananda Sarkar, 2019. "Regime Dependent Effect Of Output Growth On Output Growth Uncertainty: Evidence From Oecd Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 257-282, July.
    18. Michael R. Pakko, 1998. "Shoe-leather costs of inflation and policy credibility," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 37-50.
    19. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Inflation and Balanced-Path Growth with Alternative Payment Mechanisms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 247-270, January.
    20. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    INFLATION ; COSTS;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocatr:83. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.