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The effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation: Stochastic volatility in mean model within a dynamic framework

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  • Berument, Hakan
  • Yalcin, Yeliz
  • Yildirim, Julide

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of inflation uncertainty innovations on inflation over time by considering the monthly United States data for the time period 1976-2006. In order to investigate the effect of inflation uncertainty innovation on inflation, a Stochastic Volatility in Mean model (SVM) has been employed. SVM models are generally used to capture the innovation to inflation uncertainty, which cannot be achieved in the framework of popular deterministic ARCH type of models. Empirical evidence provided here suggests that innovations in inflation volatility increases inflation persistently. This evidence is robust across various definitions of inflation and different sub-periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Berument, Hakan & Yalcin, Yeliz & Yildirim, Julide, 2009. "The effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation: Stochastic volatility in mean model within a dynamic framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1201-1207, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:6:p:1201-1207
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    Cited by:

    1. Diego Ferreira & Andreza Aparecida Palma, 2018. "Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Latin America: A Time-Varying Stochastic Volatility In Mean Approach," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 125, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    2. Lemoine, M. & Mougin, C., 2010. "The Growth-Volatility Relationship: New Evidence Based on Stochastic Volatility in Mean Models," Working papers 285, Banque de France.
    3. repec:eee:ecolet:v:155:y:2017:i:c:p:14-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Shu-Chin Lin, 2012. "Inflation and Inflation Volatility Revisited," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 327-345, December.
    5. Buth, Bora & Kakinaka, Makoto & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2015. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty: The case of Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Vietnam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 31-43.
    6. repec:taf:jnlbes:v:35:y:2017:i:1:p:17-28 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Diaz Vela & Svetlana Makarova, 2013. "Inflation fan charts, monetary policy and skew normal distribution," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/06, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    8. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "The International Transmission Of Volatility Shocks: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 512-533, June.
    9. Haroon Mumtaz, 2016. "The Evolving Transmission of Uncertainty Shocks in the United Kingdom," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, March.
    10. Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul Alam & Anwar, Sajid, 2012. "Sources of volatility persistence: A case study of the U.K. pound/U.S. dollar exchange rate returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 165-184.
    11. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-16-00543 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2013. "Policy Uncertainty and Aggregate Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 9694, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "The impacts of regime-switching structures and fat-tailed characteristics on the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 523-536.
    14. Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "Policy risks, technological risks and stock returns: New evidence from the US stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 359-365.
    15. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2017. "The Stochastic Volatility in Mean Model With Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to Inflation Modeling," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 17-28, January.
    16. repec:gam:jecnmx:v:4:y:2016:i:1:p:16:d:65689 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. B. Balaji & S. Raja Sethu Durai & M. Ramachandran, 2016. "The Dynamics Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, June.

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