IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflation Regimes and the


  • Evans, Martin
  • Wachtel, Paul


This paper develops new time series measures of inflation uncertainty in the United States in the postwar period that account for the prospect of changing inflation regimes. The measures are constructed from estimates of a Markov switching model for inflation. Importantly, we show that rational forecasts derived from the Markov model are consistent with survey measures of inflation expectations. Our Markov model allows us to decompose uncertainty about future inflation into two components; a certainty equivalent component that ignores uncertainty about future inflation regimes, and a regime uncertainty component that reflects this uncertainty. Survey measures of inflation uncertainty, based on the dispersion of forecasts, appear more closely associated to the regime uncertainty component than the certainty equivalent component of inflation uncertainty. The regime uncertainty component also appears to have significant explanatory power in forecasting unemployment while the certainty equivalent component does not. Copyright 1993 by Ohio State University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Evans, Martin & Wachtel, Paul, 1993. "Inflation Regimes and the," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 475-511, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:25:y:1993:i:3:p:475-511

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See for details.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:25:y:1993:i:3:p:475-511. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.