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Inflation Regimes and the

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  • Evans, Martin
  • Wachtel, Paul

Abstract

This paper develops new time series measures of inflation uncertainty in the United States in the postwar period that account for the prospect of changing inflation regimes. The measures are constructed from estimates of a Markov switching model for inflation. Importantly, we show that rational forecasts derived from the Markov model are consistent with survey measures of inflation expectations. Our Markov model allows us to decompose uncertainty about future inflation into two components; a certainty equivalent component that ignores uncertainty about future inflation regimes, and a regime uncertainty component that reflects this uncertainty. Survey measures of inflation uncertainty, based on the dispersion of forecasts, appear more closely associated to the regime uncertainty component than the certainty equivalent component of inflation uncertainty. The regime uncertainty component also appears to have significant explanatory power in forecasting unemployment while the certainty equivalent component does not. Copyright 1993 by Ohio State University Press.

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  • Evans, Martin & Wachtel, Paul, 1993. "Inflation Regimes and the," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 475-511, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:25:y:1993:i:3:p:475-511
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    1. Jeffrey Sachs & Harry Huizinga, 1987. "U.S. Commercial Banks and the Developing-Country Debt Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(2), pages 555-606.
    2. Billingsley, Randall S. & Lamy, Robert E., 1988. "The regulation of international lending IMF support, the debt crisis, and bank stockholder wealth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 255-274, June.
    3. Eyssell, Thomas H. & Fraser, Donald R. & Rangan, Nanda K., 1989. "Debt-equity swaps, regulation K, and bank stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 853-868, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
    2. Guerrieri, Luca, 2006. "The Inflation Persistence of Staggered Contracts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 483-494, March.
    3. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Reiner Franke & Willi Semmler, 2002. "Stability Analysis of a High-Dimensional Macrodynamic Model of Real-Financial Interaction: A Cascade of Matrices Approach," Working Paper Series 123, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 313-337, October.
    5. David K. Backus & Stanley E. Zin, 1993. "Long-memory inflation uncertainty: evidence from the term structure of interest rates," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 681-708.
    6. Erceg, Christopher J. & Levin, Andrew T., 2003. "Imperfect credibility and inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 915-944, May.
    7. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Reiner Franke & Willi Semmler, 2001. "Real-Financial Interaction: Integrating Supply Side Wage-Price Dynamics and the Stock Market," Working Paper Series 112, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    8. J. Ayuso & G.L. Kaminsky & D. LÛpez Salido, "undated". "Inflation regimes and stabilization policies, Spain 1962-1997," Studies on the Spanish Economy 10, FEDEA.
    9. Steffen Henzel, 2008. "Learning Trend Inflation - Can Signal Extraction Explain Survey Forecasts?," ifo Working Paper Series 55, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    10. Ciżkowicz, Piotr & Rzońca, Andrzej, 2010. "Inflation and corporate investment in selected OECD countries in the years 1960-2005 – an empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 29846, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Yong Song, 2011. "Modelling Regime Switching and Structural Breaks with an Infinite Dimension Markov Switching Model," Working Papers tecipa-427, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    12. Halunga, Andreea G. & Osborn, Denise R. & Sensier, Marianne, 2009. "Changes in the order of integration of US and UK inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 30-32, January.
    13. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 1996. "Are federal funds rate changes consistent with price stability? Results from an indicator model," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 45-51.
    14. Vasco J. Gabriel & Luis F. Martins, 2000. "The Forecast Performance of Long Memory and Markov Switching Models," NIPE Working Papers 2/2000, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    15. Juan Ayuso & Graciela L. Kaminsky & David López-Salido, 2003. "Inflation regimes and stabilisation policies: Spain 1962-2001," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 27(3), pages 615-631, September.
    16. J. Peter Ferderer, 1994. "Credibility of the Interwar Gold Standard, Uncertainty, and the Great Depression," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_102, Levy Economics Institute.

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