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Does Inflation Uncertainty Vary with the Level of Inflation?

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  • Crawford, A
  • Kasumovich, M

Abstract

The purpose ot this study is to test the hypothesis that inflation uncertainty increases at higher levels of inflation. Our analysis is based on the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity class of models, which allow the conditional variance of the error term to be time-varying. Since this variance is a proxy for inflation uncertainty, a positive relationship between the conditional variance and inflation would be interpreted as evidence that inflation uncertainty increases with the level of inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Crawford, A & Kasumovich, M, 1996. "Does Inflation Uncertainty Vary with the Level of Inflation?," Staff Working Papers 96-09, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:96-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kontonikas, A., 2004. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the United Kingdom, evidence from GARCH modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 525-543, May.
    2. Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra, 2009. "Inflation Volatility: An Asian Perspective," MPRA Paper 19489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Christian Bordes & Laurent Clerc, 2007. "Price Stability And The Ecb'S Monetary Policy Strategy," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 268-326, April.
    4. Louis Christofides & Chen Peng, 2006. "Major Provisions of Labour Contracts and their Theoretical Coherence," CESifo Working Paper Series 1700, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. André Binette & Sylvain Martel, 2005. "Inflation and Relative Price Dispersion in Canada: An Empirical Assessment," Staff Working Papers 05-28, Bank of Canada.
    6. Berument, Hakan & Yalcin, Yeliz & Yildirim, Julide, 2009. "The effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation: Stochastic volatility in mean model within a dynamic framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1201-1207, November.
    7. Luis A. Rivas & José de Jesús Rojas, 2001. "Precios relativos, inflación subyacente y metas de inflación: un análisis para Nicaragua," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 355-380, julio-sep.
    8. Syed Kumail Abbas Naqvi & Bushra Naqvi, 2010. "Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 1-33, Jul-Dec.
    9. repec:spr:qualqt:v:51:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11135-016-0341-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Christofides, Louis N. & Peng, Chen, 2006. "Contract duration and indexation in a period of real and nominal uncertainty," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 61-86, February.
    11. Francis Vitek, 2002. "An Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Interrelationships Among Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, Relative Price Dispersion, and Output Growth," Staff Working Papers 02-39, Bank of Canada.
    12. Gerald Stuber, 2001. "Implications of Uncertainty about Long-Run Inflation and the Price Level," Staff Working Papers 01-16, Bank of Canada.
    13. da Silva Filho, Tito Nícias Teixeira, 2005. "Is there too much certainty when measuring uncertainty," MPRA Paper 16383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Christensen, Ian & Frédéric Dion & Christopher Reid, 2004. "Real Return Bonds, Inflation Expectations, and the Break-Even Inflation Rate," Staff Working Papers 04-43, Bank of Canada.
    15. Isabel Ruiz, 2005. "Empirical analysis on the real effects of inflation and exchange rate uncertainty: The case of Colombia," International Finance 0511006, EconWPA.
    16. Isabel Cristina Ruiz, 2005. "Empirical analysis on the real effects of inflation and exchange rate uncertainty: The case of Colombia," REVISTA ECOS DE ECONOMÍA, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT, April.
    17. Sami Keskek & Mehmet Orhan, 2010. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(10), pages 1281-1291.
    18. Buth, Bora & Kakinaka, Makoto & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2015. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty: The case of Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Vietnam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 31-43.
    19. Daniel G. Garcés Díaz, 2001. "Determinación del nivel de precios y la dinámica inflacionaria en México," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 241-269, julio-sep.
    20. Carlos Andrés Perilla Castro, 2001. "Capitales mínimos de los establecimientos de crédito," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 271-353, julio-sep.
    21. Sweidan, O.D., 2004. "Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth in Jordan?. An Econometric Analysis for the Period 1970-2000," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(2), pages 41-66.
    22. Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra, 2008. "Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 19488, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. B. Balaji & S. Raja Sethu Durai & M. Ramachandran, 2016. "The Dynamics Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    INFLATION;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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