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The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence

  • Kevin B. Grier

    (Department of Economics, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA)

  • Mark J. Perry

    (Department of Economics, University of Michigan-Flint, Flint, MI 48502-2186, USA)

In this paper we use GARCH-M methods to test four hypotheses about the effects of real and nominal uncertainty on average inflation and output growth in the United States from 1948 to 1996. We find no evidence that higher inflation uncertainty or higher output growth uncertainty raises the average inflation rate. We also find no support for the idea that more risky output growth is associated with a higher average real growth rate. Our key result is that in a variety of models and sample periods, inflation uncertainty significantly lowers real output growth. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 15 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 45-58

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:15:y:2000:i:1:p:45-58
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  1. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
  3. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
  4. Cosimano, Thomas F & Jansen, Dennis W, 1988. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 409-21, August.
  5. Devereux, Michael, 1989. "A Positive Theory of Inflation and Inflation Variance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(1), pages 105-16, January.
  6. E.K. Berndt & B.H. Hall & R.E. Hall, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 103-116 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Brunner, Allan D, 1993. "Inflation Regimes and the," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 512-14, August.
  8. Engle, Robert F, 1988. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model: Reply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 422-23, August.
  9. Victor Zarnowitz & Louis A. Lambros, 1983. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," NBER Working Papers 1171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
  11. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-92, June.
  12. Zarnowitz, Victor & Lambros, Louis A, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 591-621, June.
  13. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1996. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and relative price dispersion: Evidence from bivariate GARCH-M models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 391-405, October.
  14. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
  15. Grier, Kevin B & Perry, Mark J, 1993. " The Effect of Money Shocks on Interest Rates in the Presence of Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1445-55, September.
  16. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  17. Laurence Ball, 1990. "Why Does High Inflation Raise Inflation Uncertainty?," NBER Working Papers 3224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Holland, A Steven, 1988. "Indexation and the Effect of Inflation Uncertainty on Real GNP," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(4), pages 473-84, October.
  19. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
  20. John E. Golob, 1993. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and relative price variability: a survey," Research Working Paper 93-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  21. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
  22. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
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