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Supply-side sources of inflation: evidence from OECD countries

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  • Prakash Loungani
  • Phillip Swagel

Abstract

We evaluate the merits of the "supply-side" view under which inflation results from sectoral shocks, and compare it with the "classical" view in which inflation results from aggregate factors such as variations in money growth. Using a panel VAR methodology applied to data for 13 GECD countries, we find support for a multi-shock view of inflation: supply-side shocks are statistically significant determinants of inflation, even after taking into account aggregate demand factors. While oil prices are the dominant supply-side influence, other measures such as the skewness of relative price changes are important as well. At short horizons, an innovation to skewness leads to an increase in inflation of 0.5 percentage points. As suggested by the classical view, money growth plays an increasingly important role as the time horizon lengthens.

Suggested Citation

  • Prakash Loungani & Phillip Swagel, 1995. "Supply-side sources of inflation: evidence from OECD countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 515, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:515
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Engel, Eduardo M. R. A., 1993. "Microeconomic rigidities and aggregate price dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 697-711, May.
    2. Stanley Fischer, 1981. "Relative Shocks, Relative Price Variability, and Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 381-442.
    3. Fama, Eugene F., 1983. "Financial intermediation and price level control," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 7-28.
    4. Boschen, John F & Talbot, Kathleen E, 1991. "Monetary Base Growth, Deposit Growth, and Inflation in the Postwar United States," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(3), pages 313-337, July.
    5. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 161-193.
    7. Debelle, Guy & Lamont, Owen, 1997. "Relative Price Variability and Inflation: Evidence from U.S. Cities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(1), pages 132-152, February.
    8. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    9. F. J. M. Meyer-zu-Schlochtern, 1988. "An International Sectoral Data Base for Thirteen OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 57, OECD Publishing.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. O'Reilly, B., 1998. "The Benefits of Low Inflation: Taking Shock "A nickel ain't worth a dime any more" [Yogi Berra]," Technical Reports 83, Bank of Canada.
    2. Andrés Langebaek R. & Eliana González Molano, 2007. "Inflación Y Precios Relativos En Colombia," Borradores de Economia 459, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Robert A. Amano & R. Tiff Macklem, 1997. "Menu Costs, Relative Prices, and Inflation: Evidence for Canada," Staff Working Papers 97-14, Bank of Canada.
    4. María Ángeles Caraballo & Carlos Usabiaga, 2003. "Análisis de la estructura de la inflación de las regiones españolas: La metodología de Ball y Mankiw," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2003/44, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    5. Carlos Usabiaga & María à ngeles Caraballo, 2004. "Inflation and Nominal Rigidities in Spanish Regions: The Ball and Mankiw Approach," ERSA conference papers ersa04p12, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Armando Méndez Morales, 1998. "Determinants of Growth in an Error; Correction Model for El Salvador," IMF Working Papers 98/104, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Hiranya Nath, 2004. "Relative importance of sectoral and aggregate sources of price changes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(16), pages 1781-1796.
    8. Prakash Loungani & Phillip L Swagel, 2001. "Sources of Inflation in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 01/198, International Monetary Fund.

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