IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Structural Breaks and Relative Price Convergence among U.S. Cities

  • Hiranya K. Nath

    ()

    (Department of Economics and International Business, Sam Houston State University)

  • Natalie Hegwood

    ()

    (Department of Economics and International Business, Sam Houston State University)

This paper examines price index convergence among U. S. cities by applying panel unit root test procedures that allow for structural breaks to annual CPI data between 1918 and 2010 for 17 major cities. With an endogenously determined single break in 1985, and two breaks in 1943 and 1990 respectively, the test results provide overwhelming evidence of convergence of relative prices across cities, which is consistent with the existing literature. Most importantly, this study finds that the speed of convergence with structural break(s) is much faster than that reported by previous panel studies with no structural break. Furthermore, correcting for small-sample bias (the so-called “Nickell Bias”) and time aggregation bias generates a half-life of 2.8 years with two breaks, which is 74% shorter than the half-life estimate with no structural break and no bias correction. These results highlight the importance of structural break(s) and bias correction in obtaining reasonable panel estimates of the half-life to relative price convergence among U. S. cities.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.shsu.edu/%7Etcq001/paper_files/wp12-04_paper.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business in its series Working Papers with number 1204.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:shs:wpaper:1204
Contact details of provider: Postal: P O Box 2118, Huntsville, TX 77341-2118
Fax: 936-294-3612
Web page: http://www.shsu.edu/~eco_www/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani, 2002. "Persistence in Law-Of-One-Price Deviations: Evidence from Micro-Data," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0222, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Jul 2004.
  3. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1994. "How Wide is the Border?," NBER Working Papers 4829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Basher, Syed Abul & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis, 2010. "Measuring Persistence of U.S. City Prices: New Evidence from Robust Tests," MPRA Paper 22482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Robert Sonora, 2009. "City relative price convergence in the USA with structural break(s)," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(9), pages 939-944.
  6. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
  7. Chen, L. L. & Devereux, J., 2003. "What can US city price data tell us about purchasing power parity?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 213-222, April.
  8. David Papell, 1998. "The Great Appreciation, the Great Depreciation, and the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis," Working Papers 30, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  9. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
  10. Vining, Daniel R, Jr & Elwertowski, Thomas C, 1976. "The Relationship between Relative Prices and the General Price Level," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 699-708, September.
  11. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  12. Haroon Mumtaz & Jean Imbs & Morten O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back; Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 03/68, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Debelle, Guy & Lamont, Owen, 1997. "Relative Price Variability and Inflation: Evidence from U.S. Cities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(1), pages 132-52, February.
  14. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  15. Hercowitz, Zvi, 1981. "Money and the Dispersion of Relative Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 328-56, April.
  16. Natalie D. Hegwood & David H. Papell, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity under the Gold Standard," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 72-91, July.
  17. Robert J. Sonora, 2005. "City CPI Convergence in Mexico," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 359-367, 08.
  18. Jerzy D. Konieczny & Andrzej Skrzypacz, 2000. "Inflation and Price Setting in a Natural Experiment," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1132, Econometric Society.
  19. Hegwood, Natalie D & Papell, David H, 1998. "Quasi Purchasing Power Parity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-89, October.
  20. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  21. Chi-Young Choi, 2010. "Reconsidering the Relationship between Inflation and Relative Price Variability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 769-798, 08.
  22. Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2006. "Additional Evidence of Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity with Restricted Structural Change," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1329-1349, August.
  23. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  24. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
  25. Hiranya K. Nath & Jayanta Sarkar, 2007. "Unbiased Estimation of the Half-Life to Price Index Convergence among US Cities," Working Papers 0703, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
  26. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  27. Kyung-So Im & Junsoo Lee & Margie Tieslau, 2005. "Panel LM Unit-root Tests with Level Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 393-419, 06.
  28. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "The purchasing power parity revisited: New evidence for 16 OECD countries from panel unit root tests with structural breaks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 137-146, April.
  29. Culver, Sarah E. & Papell, David H., 1995. "Real exchange rates under the gold standard: can they be explained by the trend break model?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 539-548, August.
  30. David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 1996. "Convergence to the Law of One Price Without Trade Barriers or Currency Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Jörg Breitung & Bertrand Candelon, 2005. "Purchasing Power Parity during Currency Crises: A Panel Unit Root Test under Structural Breaks," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 124-140, April.
  32. Choi, Chi-Young & Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2006. "Unbiased Estimation of the Half-Life to PPP Convergence in Panel Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 921-938, June.
  33. Mick Silver & Christos Ioannidis, 2001. "Intercountry Differences in the Relationship between Relative Price Variability and Average Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(2), pages 355-374, April.
  34. Yao, Yi-Ching, 1988. "Estimating the number of change-points via Schwarz' criterion," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 181-189, February.
  35. Prodan, Ruxandra, 2008. "Potential Pitfalls in Determining Multiple Structural Changes With an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 50-65, January.
  36. Chi-Young Choi & Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "Bias Reduction by Recursive Mean Adjustment in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Econometrics 0409005, EconWPA.
  37. Josep LluIs Carrion-I-Silvestre & Tomas Del Barrio & Enrique Lopez-Bazo, 2004. "Evidence on the purchasing power parity in a panel of cities," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(9), pages 961-966.
  38. Chmelarova, Viera & Nath, Hiranya K., 2010. "Relative price convergence among US cities: Does the choice of numeraire city matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 405-414, March.
  39. Nath, Hiranya K., 2004. "Inflation and relative price variability: short-run vs. long-run," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 363-369, March.
  40. Stanley Fischer, 1981. "Relative Shocks, Relative Price Variability, and Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 381-442.
  41. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  42. Domberger, Simon, 1987. "Relative Price Variability and Inflation: A Disaggregated Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 547-66, June.
  43. Parks, Richard W, 1978. "Inflation and Relative Price Variability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(1), pages 79-95, February.
  44. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  45. Maurice Obstfeld., 1993. "Model Trending Real Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-011, University of California at Berkeley.
  46. André Sapir & Jaime de Melo, 1991. "Trade theory and economic reform: North, South and East," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8084, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  47. Reinsdorf, Marshall, 1994. "New Evidence on the Relation between Inflation and Price Dispersion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 720-31, June.
  48. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark & Robert J. Sonora, 2002. "Price Index Convergence Among United States Cities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1081-1099, November.
  49. Lach, Saul & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1992. "The Behavior of Prices and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis of Disaggregated Price Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 349-89, April.
  50. Basher Syed A. & Carrion-i-Silvestre Josep Lluís, 2009. "Price Level Convergence, Purchasing Power Parity and Multiple Structural Breaks in Panel Data Analysis: An Application to U.S. Cities," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-38, April.
  51. Van Hoomissen, Theresa, 1988. "Price Dispersion and Inflation: Evidence from Israel," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(6), pages 1303-14, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:shs:wpaper:1204. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Troy Quast)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.