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The purchasing power parity revisited: New evidence for 16 OECD countries from panel unit root tests with structural breaks

  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar

In this paper, we apply a range of univariate unit root tests including the Lagrangian multiplier (LM) univariate and panel unit root tests to examine PPP for 16 OECD countries. In addition to incorporating structural breaks in the univariate exchange rate series, we also incorporate structural breaks in the panel exchange rate models. Our main finding from univariate tests, with and without structural breaks and panel LM test with one break, is that real exchange rates are not stationary, inconsistent with PPP hypothesis. However, when we incorporate two structural breaks in the univariate LM test, for most countries we find that real exchange rates are stationary. Moreover, we obtain overwhelming support for PPP when we apply panel LM unit root tests with two structural breaks.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.

Volume (Year): 18 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 137-146

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:18:y:2008:i:2:p:137-146
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin

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  1. Tsung-Wu Ho, 2002. "Searching Stationarity in the Real Exchange Rates: Application of the SUR Estimator," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 275-289, July.
  2. Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "A Century Of Purchasing-Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 139-150, February.
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  7. Gailliot, Henry J, 1970. "Purchasing Power Parity as an Explanation of Long-Term Changes in Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(3), pages 348-57, August.
  8. Quah, Danny, 1994. "Exploiting cross-section variation for unit root inference in dynamic data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 9-19.
  9. Kyung-So Im & Junsoo Lee & Margie Tieslau, 2005. "Panel LM Unit-root Tests with Level Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 393-419, 06.
  10. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
  11. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  12. Kargbo, Joseph M., 2003. "Cointegration Tests of Purchasing Power Parity in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 1673-1685, October.
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  14. Papell, David H., 2002. "The great appreciation, the great depreciation, and the purchasing power parity hypothesis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 51-82, June.
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