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Determinants of the real exchange rate in a small open economy: Evidence from Canada

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  • Kia, Amir

Abstract

This study develops a theoretical monetary model of the real exchange rate and shows that over the long run the real exchange rate is a function of real money supply, domestic and foreign interest rate, real GDP, real government expenditure, deficit per GDP, domestic and foreign outstanding debt per GDP, domestic and foreign externally financed debt per GDP and commodity price. The model was tested on Canadian data (1972Q1–2010Q3 period). It was found that all variables, except real money supply, domestic and foreign interest rate and domestic externally financed debt have a statistically significant impact on the real exchange rate in Canada. However, the domestic fiscal variables do not have any impact on the real exchange rate over the short run. The change in interest rate, the growth of money supply, the commodity price and the US debt per GDP have a negative impact on the growth of the real exchange rate over the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Kia, Amir, 2013. "Determinants of the real exchange rate in a small open economy: Evidence from Canada," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 163-178.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:23:y:2013:i:c:p:163-178
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.09.001
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    2. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2015. "Macro Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate in a Small Open Small Island Economy: Evidence from Mauritius via BMA," MPRA Paper 68968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mohammad Al‐Shboul & Sajid Anwar, 2014. "Foreign exchange rate exposure: Evidence from Canada," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(1), pages 18-29, January.
    4. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Anwar, Sajid, 2014. "Pricing of the currency risk in the Canadian equity market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 173-194.
    5. Wai-Mun Har & Ai-Lian Tan & Chong-Heng Lim & Chai-Thing Tan, 2017. "Does Interest Rate Still Matter in Determining Exchange Rate?," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 25(1), pages 19-25.
    6. Leroi RAPUTSOANE, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rates Comovements and the South African Currency," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 57-68, March.
    7. Abraham Deka & Behiye Cavusoglu, 2022. "Examining the role of renewable energy on the foreign exchange rate of the OECD economies with dynamic panel GMM and Bayesian VAR model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(9), pages 1-19, September.
    8. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2018. "Macro Determinants Of The Real Exchange Rate In A Small Open Small Island Economy:Evidence From Mauritius Via Bma," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 21(1), pages 57-80, July.
    9. Adu, Raymond & Litsios, Ioannis & Baimbridge, Mark, 2019. "Real exchange rate and asymmetric shocks in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 232-249.
    10. Saidia Jeelani & Joity Tomar & Tapas Das & Seshanwita Das, 2019. "Testing Structural Break in the Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Variables," Vision, , vol. 23(4), pages 442-453, December.
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    12. Amir Kia, 2024. "Demand for Money in the United States: Stability and Forward-Looking Tests," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, February.
    13. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Chen Ku‐Hsieh, 2021. "Depreciate to save the economy? An empirical evidence worldwide," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1563-1585, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rate; Monetary policy; Debt; Deficit and foreign financing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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