What Drives Exchange Rates? New Evidence from a Panel of U.S. Dollar Bilateral Exchange Rates
We use a novel approach to identify economic developments that drive exchange rates in the long run. Using a panel of six quarterly U.S. bilateral real exchange rates – Australia, Canada, the euro, Japan, New Zealand and the United Kingdom – over the 1980-2007 period, a dynamic factor model points to two common factors. The first factor is driven by U.S. shocks, and cointegration analysis points to a long-run statistical relationship with the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio, relative to all other countries in our sample. The second common factor is driven by commodity prices. Incorporating these relationships directly into a state-space model, we find highly significant coefficients. Then, we decompose the historical variation of each exchange rate into U.S. shocks, commodities, and a domestic component. We find a strong role for economic fundamentals: Changes in the two common factors, which are driven by the (relative) U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio and commodity prices, can explain between 36 and 96 per cent of individual countries' exchange rates in our panel.
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| Length: | 36 pages |
| Date of creation: | 2010 |
| Date of revision: | |
| Handle: | RePEc:bca:bocawp:10-5 |
| Contact details of provider: | Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada Phone: 613 782-8845 Fax: 613 782-8874 Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/
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