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What Drives Exchange Rates? New Evidence from a Panel of U.S. Dollar Bilateral Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Philippe Cayen
  • Donald Coletti
  • Rene Lalonde
  • Philipp Maier

Abstract

We use a novel approach to identify economic developments that drive exchange rates in the long run. Using a panel of six quarterly U.S. bilateral real exchange rates – Australia, Canada, the euro, Japan, New Zealand and the United Kingdom – over the 1980-2007 period, a dynamic factor model points to two common factors. The first factor is driven by U.S. shocks, and cointegration analysis points to a long-run statistical relationship with the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio, relative to all other countries in our sample. The second common factor is driven by commodity prices. Incorporating these relationships directly into a state-space model, we find highly significant coefficients. Then, we decompose the historical variation of each exchange rate into U.S. shocks, commodities, and a domestic component. We find a strong role for economic fundamentals: Changes in the two common factors, which are driven by the (relative) U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio and commodity prices, can explain between 36 and 96 per cent of individual countries' exchange rates in our panel.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Philippe Cayen & Donald Coletti & Rene Lalonde & Philipp Maier, 2010. "What Drives Exchange Rates? New Evidence from a Panel of U.S. Dollar Bilateral Exchange Rates," Staff Working Papers 10-5, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:10-5
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Felício, Wilson Rafael de Oliveira & Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2013. "Common factors and the exchange rate: results from the Brazilian case," Insper Working Papers wpe_318, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    2. Kia, Amir, 2013. "Determinants of the real exchange rate in a small open economy: Evidence from Canada," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 163-178.
    3. Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2013. "Liquidity and Exchange Rates," Insper Working Papers wpe_325, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    4. Domenico Ferraro & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?," Working Papers 11-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Jun Nagayasu, 2013. "Co-movements in real effective exchange rates: evidence from the dynamic hierarchical factor model," Working Papers 1318, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    6. Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2014. "The Usefulness of Financial Variables in Predicting Exchange Rate Movements," Insper Working Papers wpe_332, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    7. Chadwick, Meltem Gülenay & Fazilet, Fatih & Tekatli, Necati, 2015. "Understanding the common dynamics of the emerging market currencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 120-136.
    8. Nagayasu, Jun, 2015. "Global and country-specific factors in real effective exchange rates," MPRA Paper 64217, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Rossi Junior, Jose Luiz & Felicio, Wilson Rafael de Oliveira, 2014. "Common Factors and the Exchange Rate: Results From the Brazilian Case," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 68(1), April.
    10. Ferraro, Domenico & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2015. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates? An empirical analysis of the relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 116-141.
    11. Jonathan Hambur & Lynne Cockerell & Christopher Potter & Penelope Smith & Michelle Wright, 2015. "Modelling the Australian Dollar," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2015-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    12. repec:eee:finana:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:309-315 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Nagayasu, Jun, 2016. "Commonality and Heterogeneity in Real Effective Exchange Rates: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 70078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:68:n:1:a:3 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Econometric and statistical methods;

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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