Deficits, Debt Financing, Monetary Policy and Inflation in Developing Countries: Internal or External Factors?
This paper focuses on internal and external factors, which influence the inflation rate in developing countries. A monetary model of inflation rate, capable of incorporating both monetary and fiscal policies as well as other internal and external factors, was developed and tested on three developing countries: Egypt, Iran and Turkey. The model performed well on the data of these countries. It was found that government debt and deficits along with other factors are important determinants of inflation. Furthermore, most sources of inflation in these countries are domestic factors.
|Date of creation:||21 Oct 2004|
|Publication status:||Published: Carleton Economic Papers|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: C870 Loeb Building, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa Ontario, K1S 5B6 Canada|
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1996. "The black market exchange rate and demand for money in Iran," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 171-176.
- Guidotti, Pablo E, 1993. "Currency Substitution and Financial Innovation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 109-124, February.
- Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1978. "The problem of inflation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, January.
- Allan Drazen & Elhanan Helpman, 1986.
"Inflationary Consequences of Anticipated Macroeconomic Policies,"
NBER Working Papers
2006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Allan Drazen & Elhanan Helpman, 1990. "Inflationary Consequences of Anticipated Macroeconomic Policies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 147-164.
- Evans, Paul, 1985. "Do Large Deficits Produce High Interest Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 68-87, March.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
- Neyapti, Bilin, 2004. "Fiscal decentralization, central bank independence and inflation: a panel investigation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 227-230, February.
- Ross Levine, 1997.
"Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
- Levine, Ross, 1996. "Financial development and economic growth : views and agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1678, The World Bank.
- Grayham E. Mizon & David F. Hendry, 1998. "Exogeneity, causality, and co-breaking in economic policy analysis of a small econometric model of money in the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 267-294.
- Hakan Berument & Zubeyir Kilinc, 2004. "The effect of foreign income on economic performance of a small-open economy: evidence from Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(8), pages 483-488.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 1992.
"Testing for parameter instability in linear models,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "STABTEST: RATS procedure to perform Hansen's stability test for OLS," Statistical Software Components RTS00199, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Hueng, C. James, 1999. "Money demand in an open-economy shopping-time model: an out-of-sample-prediction application to Canada," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 489-503.
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
- Robert J. Barro, 1980.
"Output Effects of Government Purchases,"
NBER Working Papers
0432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fischer, Stanley, 1979. "Capital Accumulation on the Transition Path in a Monetary Optimizing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1433-1439, November.
- Ayca Tekin-Koru & Erdal Ozmen, 2003. "Budget deficits, money growth and inflation: the Turkish evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 591-596.
- Hoelscher, Gregory, 1986. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, February.
- Meltzer, Allan H, 1977. "Anticipated Inflation and Unanticipated Price Change: A Test of the Price-Specie Flow Theory and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 182-205, February.
- Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
- Giannaros, Demetrios S. & Kolluri, Bharat R., 1985. "Deficit spending, money, and inflation: Some international empirical evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 401-417.
- Ahmend, S. & Yoo, B.S., 1993.
"Fiscal Trends in Real Economic Aggregates,"
10-93-13, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I., 1985. "Money, deficits, and inflation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 147-195, January.
- Robert A. Amano & Tony Wirjanto, 1997.
"Government Expenditures and the Permanent-Income Model,"
98002, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Nov 1997.
- Robert A. Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, 1998. "Government Expenditures and the Permanent-Income Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(3), pages 719-730, July.
- Cardia, Emanuela & Kozhaya, Norma & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 2003. " Distortionary Taxation and Labor Supply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 350-373, June.
- McNelis, Paul D., 1987. "Indexing, exchange rate policy and inflationary feedback effects in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 1107-1117, August.
- Karras, Georgios, 1994. "Government Spending and Private Consumption: Some International Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(1), pages 9-22, February.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
- Kim, Jinill, 2000. "Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 329-359, April.
- Alan C. Stockman, 1978.
"A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
122, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Aschauer, David Alan, 1985. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 117-127, March.
- Robert A. Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, 1997. "Intratemporal Substitution And Government Spending," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 605-609, November.
- Ashra, Sunil & Chattopadhyay, Saumen & Chaudhuri, Kausik, 2004. "Deficit, money and price: the Indian experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 289-299, April.
- Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2003. "External Shocks and Debt Accumulation in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 207-239, January.
- Steve Ambler & Emanuela Cardia, 1996. "Optimal Government Spending in a Business Cycle Model," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 44, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
- Edmund Sheehey, 1979. "On the measurement of imported inflation in developing countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 115(1), pages 68-80, March.
- Baydur, Cem Mehmet & Suslu, Bora, 2004. "The view of Sargent and Wallace on monetary policy: tight monetary policy does not stop inflation: an evaluation of CBRT's monetary policy for 1987-2002," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 191-208, February.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
- Bradley, Michael D., 1986. "Government spending or deficit financing: which causes crowding out?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 203-214, August.
- Rudiger Dornbusch & Ferico Sturzenegger & Holger Wolf, 1990. "Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 1-84.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:car:carecp:04-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabrina Robineau)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.