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External Shocks and Debt Accumulation in a Small Open Economy

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  • Abdelhak S. Senhadji

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the borrowing behavior of a small open economy of a Less Developed Country (LDC) that relies heavily on imports for its capital formation and faces an upward sloping supply function of foreign loans, in an environment where decision makers face uncertainty about the longevity of external shocks. First, a dynamic general equilibrium model is developed which replicates fairly well the business cycle properties of the LDC data. Second, it is shown that uncertainty concerning the longevity of shocks (a relevant type of uncertainty, especially for LDCs) generates forecast errors that are autocorrelated in a way that is similar to Bayesian learning in the "peso problem." This autocorrelated forecast errors can generate substantial debt accumulation. Third, it is shown that the assumption of an upward sloping supply function of foreign loans, which is a more realistic assumption for LDCs than the usual perfectly elastic one, offers an alternative to the Uzawa-type utility function for the analysis of asset accumulation in the small open economy framework. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2003. "External Shocks and Debt Accumulation in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 207-239, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:6:y:2003:i:1:p:207-239
    DOI: 10.1016/S1094-2025(02)00015-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bouakez, Hafedh & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2015. "Government spending, monetary policy, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 178-201.
    2. Carlos Esteban Posada Posada & Wilman Gómez, 2004. "Un choque del activo externo neto y el ciclo económico Colombiano 1994-2001," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003674, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    3. Ghironi, Fabio, 2008. "The role of net foreign assets in a New Keynesian small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1780-1811, June.
    4. Kia, Amir, 2006. "Deficits, debt financing, monetary policy and inflation in developing countries: Internal or external factors?: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 879-903, November.
    5. Nason, James M. & Rogers, John H., 2006. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 159-187, January.
    6. CARDI, Oliver & BERTINELLI, Luisito, 2004. "A formal model of krugman’s intuition on the J-curve," CORE Discussion Papers 2004043, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    7. Ester Faia, 2007. "Financial Differences and Business Cycle Co-Movements in a Currency Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 151-185, February.
    8. Özbilgin, H. Murat, 2010. "Financial market participation and the developing country business cycle," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 125-137, July.
    9. Kuralbayeva, Karlygash & Vines, David, 2006. "Terms of Trade Shocks in an Intertemporal Model: Should We Worry about the Dutch Disease or Excessive Borrowing?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5857, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Chung, Keunsuk & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2010. "Foreign debt supply in an imperfect international capital market: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 201-223, March.
    11. Amir Kia, 2004. "Deficits, Debt Financing, Monetary Policy and Inflation in Developing Countries: Internal or External Factors?," Carleton Economic Papers 04-15, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    12. Thomas A. Lubik, 2007. "Non-stationarity and instability in small open-economy models even when they are "closed"," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 393-412.
    13. Faia, Ester & Campolmi, Alessia, 2006. "Cyclical inflation divergence and different labor market institutions in the EMU," Working Paper Series 619, European Central Bank.
    14. Fabio Kanczuk, 2004. "Real Interest Rates and Brazilian Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(2), pages 436-455, April.
    15. Ester Faia & Alessia Campolmi, 2005. "Inflation Differentials and Different Labor Market Institutions in the EMU," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 80, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    16. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:97:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Amir Kia, 2006. "Deficits, Debt Financing, Monetary Policy and Inflation in Developing Countries: Internal or External Factors? Evidence from Iran," Carleton Economic Papers 06-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2006.
    18. Muhanji, Stella & Ojah, Kalu, 2011. "External shocks and persistence of external debt in open vulnerable economies: The case of Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1615-1628, July.
    19. Olivier Cardi, 2007. "The Zero-root Property: Permanent vs Temporary Terms-of-trade Shocks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 782-802, September.
    20. Muhanji, Stella & Ojah, Kalu, 2016. "Governance infrastructure and indebtedness of African countries: Do regional blocs matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 123-153.
    21. Rasaki, Mutiu Gbade & Malikane, Christopher, 2015. "Macroeconomic shocks and fluctuations in African economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 675-696.
    22. Wilman Gómez & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2004. "Un "Choque" del Activo Externo Neto y el Ciclo Económico Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 285, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt accumulation; Stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model; External shocks; Incomplete information; Less Developed Economies;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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