IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdl/ucsdec/qt9pz945h6.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries

Author

Listed:
  • Arezki, Rabah
  • Ramey, Valerie A
  • Sheng, Liugang

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Arezki, Rabah & Ramey, Valerie A & Sheng, Liugang, 2015. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt9pz945h6, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt9pz945h6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/9pz945h6.pdf;origin=repeccitec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Does the Current Account Still Matter?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Paul R. Bergin & Steven M. Sheffrin, 2017. "Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and Present Value Models of the Current Account," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 10, pages 287-316, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Stephanie Schmitt‐Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2012. "What's News in Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2733-2764, November.
    4. Glick, Reuven & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 159-192, February.
    5. Lei, Yu-Hsiang & Michaels, Guy, 2014. "Do giant oilfield discoveries fuel internal armed conflicts?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 139-157.
    6. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    7. Francesco Caselli & James Feyrer, 2007. "The Marginal Product of Capital," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 535-568.
    8. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    9. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2012. "Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 145-181, May.
    10. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    11. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
    12. Anca M. Cotet & Kevin K. Tsui, 2013. "Oil and Conflict: What Does the Cross Country Evidence Really Show?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 49-80, January.
    13. Isaac Gross & James Hansen, 2013. "Reserves of Natural Resources in a Small Open Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2013-14, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    14. Enghin Atalay, 2017. "How Important Are Sectoral Shocks?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 254-280, October.
    15. Correia, Isabel & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Business cycles in a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1089-1113, June.
    16. Mathias Hoffmann & Michael U Krause & Thomas Laubach, 2019. "The Expectations-driven US Current Account," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 897-924.
    17. Soren T. Anderson & Ryan Kellogg & Stephen W. Salant, 2018. "Hotelling under Pressure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 984-1026.
    18. Andr? Kurmann & Elmar Mertens, 2014. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1439-1445, April.
    19. Eric M. Leeper & Alexander W. Richter & Todd B. Walker, 2012. "Corrigendum: Quantitative Effects of Fiscal Foresight," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 283-283, August.
    20. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    21. Robert J. Barro & Robert G. King, 1984. "Time-Separable Preferences and Intertemporal-Substitution Models of Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 817-839.
    22. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H., 2006. "The U.S. current account deficit and the expected share of world output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 1063-1093, July.
    23. Hamilton, Kirk & Atkinson, Giles, 2013. "Resource discoveries, learning, and national income accounting," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6505, The World Bank.
    24. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799, Elsevier.
    25. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Guido Lorenzoni, 2013. "News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 3045-3070, December.
    26. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2013. "Expectations and Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Survey Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(4), pages 1352-1367, October.
    27. Barsky, Robert B. & Sims, Eric R., 2011. "News shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 273-289.
    28. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    29. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2008. "News and Business Cycles in Open Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1699-1711, December.
    30. Maurice Obstfeld, 1982. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 97(2), pages 251-270.
    31. David O Lucca, 2007. "Resuscitating Time-to-Build," 2007 Meeting Papers 909, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    32. Samuel Wills, 2012. "Optimal Monetary Responses to Oil Discoveries," Discussion Papers 1408, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Apr 2014.
    33. Samuel Wills, 2013. "Optimal Monetary Responses to News of an Oil Discovery," OxCarre Working Papers 121, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    34. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu‐Chun Susan Yang, 2013. "Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1115-1145, May.
    35. Giancarlo Corsetti & Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2012. "What Drives US Foreign Borrowing? Evidence on the External Adjustment to Transitory and Permanent Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1062-1092, April.
    36. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 2006. "The U.S. current account deficit and the expected share of world output," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun.
    37. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 179-206.
    38. Kevin K. Tsui, 2011. "More Oil, Less Democracy: Evidence from Worldwide Crude Oil Discoveries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 89-115, March.
    39. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    40. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1343-1377, June.
    41. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Kaltenbrunner, Georg, 2009. "Anticipated growth and business cycles in matching models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 309-327, April.
    42. Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Present value tests of an intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 237-253, November.
    43. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "United States: 2013 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/236, International Monetary Fund.
    44. Ghosh, Atish R & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1995. "The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 9(2), pages 305-333, May.
    45. Michelle Alexopoulos, 2011. "Read All about It!! What Happens Following a Technology Shock?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1144-1179, June.
    46. Persson, Torsten & Svensson, Lars E O, 1985. "Current Account Dynamics and the Terms of Trade: Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Two Generations Later," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 43-65, February.
    47. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2007. "When can changes in expectations cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical settings?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 458-477, July.
    48. Robert J. Barro & Charles J. Redlick, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 51-102.
    49. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 30(2), pages 179-206, April.
    50. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine, 2000. "A New Database on the Structure and Development of the Financial Sector," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(3), pages 597-605, September.
    51. G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    52. Menzie D. Chinn & Shang-Jin Wei, 2013. "A Faith-Based Initiative Meets the Evidence: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 168-184, March.
    53. Robert J. Barro, 2012. "Convergence and Modernization Revisited," NBER Working Papers 18295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. World Bank, 2013. "World Development Indicators 2013," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13191.
    55. Pao-Li Chang & Shinichi Sakata, 2007. "Estimation of impulse response functions using long autoregression," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(2), pages 453-469, July.
    56. Bernanke, Ben, 1985. "Adjustment costs, durables, and aggregate consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 41-68, January.
    57. Eastwood, R K & Venables, A J, 1982. "The Macroeconomic Implications of a Resource Discovery in an Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(366), pages 285-299, June.
    58. Per Krusell & Alisdair McKay, 2010. "News shocks and business cycles," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 96(4Q), pages 373-397.
    59. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Munseob Lee & Cheikh A. Gueye, 2015. "Do Resource Windfalls Improve the Standard of Living in Sub-Saharan African Countries?: Evidence from a Panel of Countries," IMF Working Papers 2015/083, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Torfinn Harding & Radoslaw Stefanski, 2016. "Boom goes the price: Giant resource discoveries and real," OxCarre Working Papers 174, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    3. Anthony J. Venables & Samuel E. Wills, 2016. "Resource Funds: Stabilising, Parking, and Inter-generational Transfer," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 25(suppl_2), pages 20-40.
    4. Hinson, Melissa & Wende, Sebastian & Womack, Phillip, 2020. "Modelling Industry-Specific Policy Using Treasury’s Industry Model (TIM): A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Australian Economy," Conference papers 333197, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Bodenstein, Martin & Kamber, Güneş & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2018. "Commodity prices and labour market dynamics in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 170-184.
    6. Torfinn Harding & Radoslaw Stefans & Gerhard Toews, 2020. "Boom Goes the Price: Giant Resource Discoveries and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(630), pages 1715-1728.
    7. Hyunseung Oh & Chamna Yoon, 2016. "Residential construction lags across the US and their implications for housing supply," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 16-00002, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    8. Basak Cetinguc & Fethi Calisir & Murat Guven & Bulent Guloglu, 2023. "Are Human Development and Innovativeness Levels Good Predictors of the Competitiveness of Nations? A Panel Data Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-16, December.
    9. Anthony J. Venables, 2016. "Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has It Proven So Difficult?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 161-184, Winter.
    10. Nam, Deokwoo & Wang, Jian, 2015. "The effects of surprise and anticipated technology changes on international relative prices and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 162-177.
    11. Yabin Wang, 2017. "How Do Emerging Markets Respond to Macroeconomic Shocks? - Dynamic Panel Evidence on the Effects of Disasters," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 731-760, September.
    12. Mr. Benjamin L Hunt & Mr. Dirk V Muir & Mr. Martin Sommer, 2015. "The Potential Macroeconomic Impact of the Unconventional Oil and Gas Boom in the United States," IMF Working Papers 2015/092, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Pierre-Louis Vezina, 2016. "Resource discoveries and FDI bonanzas," OxCarre Working Papers 177, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    14. Rabah Arezki & Sambit Bhattacharyya & Nemera Mamo, 2015. "Resource Discovery and Conflict in Africa: What Do the Data Show?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2015-14, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    15. Battiati, Claudio, 2019. "R&D, growth, and macroprudential policy in an economy undergoing boom-bust cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 299-324.
    16. Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2015. "The Value of News," Working Papers No 6/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    17. Erik Gilje & Robert Ready & Nikolai Roussanov, 2016. "Fracking, Drilling, and Asset Pricing: Estimating the Economic Benefits of the Shale Revolution," NBER Working Papers 22914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rabah Arezki & Valerie A. Ramey & Liugang Sheng, 2017. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 103-155.
    2. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    3. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    4. Kang, Jihye & Kim, Soyoung, 2022. "Government spending news and surprise shocks: It’s the timing and persistence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Samuel Wills, 2012. "Optimal Monetary Responses to Oil Discoveries," Discussion Papers 1408, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Apr 2014.
    6. Sandra Gomes, 2011. "Housing Market Dynamics: Any News?," Working Papers w201121, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    7. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2014. "External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 585-645, Elsevier.
    8. Nadav Ben Zeev & Evi Pappa, 2017. "Chronicle of a War Foretold: The Macroeconomic Effects of Anticipated Defence Spending Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(603), pages 1568-1597, August.
    9. Samuel Wills, 2013. "Optimal Monetary Responses to News of an Oil Discovery," OxCarre Working Papers 121, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    10. Ryan Chahrour & Kyle Jurado, 2018. "News or Noise? The Missing Link," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1702-1736, July.
    11. Born, Benjamin & Peter, Alexandra & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2013. "Fiscal news and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2582-2601.
    12. Ansgar Belke & Steffen Elstner & Svetlana Rujin, 2022. "Growth Prospects and the Trade Balance in Advanced Economies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1209-1234, October.
    13. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric R., 2012. "Robustness, information–processing constraints, and the current account in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 104-120.
    14. Robert B. Barsky & Susanto Basu & Keyoung Lee, 2015. "Whither News Shocks?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 225-264.
    15. Kamber, Güneş & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2017. "News-driven business cycles in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 77-89.
    16. Fan, Haichao & Gao, Xiang & Xu, Juanyi & Xu, Zhiwei, 2016. "News shock, firm dynamics and business cycles: Evidence and theory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 159-180.
    17. Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo, 2025. "Forecast revisions as instruments for news shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    18. Liao, Shian-Yu & Chen, Been-Lon, 2023. "News shocks to investment-specific technology in business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    19. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan, 2020. "The expectational effects of news in business cycles: Evidence from forecast data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 184-200.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt9pz945h6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lisa Schiff (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deucsus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.