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News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries

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  • Arezki, Rabah
  • Ramey, Valerie A
  • Sheng, Liugang

Abstract

This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.
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  • Arezki, Rabah & Ramey, Valerie A & Sheng, Liugang, 2015. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt9pz945h6, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt9pz945h6
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    news shocks; current account and business cycles; production; investment; GDP; economy; capital; General; Open Economy Macroeconomics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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