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Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and Present Value Models of the Current Account

  • Bergin, Paul R
  • Sheffrin, Steven M

This paper develops a testable intertemporal model of the current account that allows for variable interest rates and exchange rates. These additional variables are channels through which external shocks may influence the domestic current account. The restrictions from the theoretical model are subjected to present value tests using quarterly data from three small open economies. The paper finds that including the interest rate and exchange rate improves the fit of the intertemporal model over what was found in previous studies. The model predictions better replicate the volatility of current account data and better explain historical episodes of current account imbalance.

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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 110 (2000)
Issue (Month): 463 (April)
Pages: 535-58

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:110:y:2000:i:463:p:535-58
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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
  2. Otto, Glenn & Voss, Graham M., 1995. "Consumption, external assets and the real interest rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 471-494.
  3. Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Testing an optimizing model of the current account via the consumption function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 220-233, June.
  4. Milbourne, Ross & Otto, Glenn, 1992. "Consumption Smoothing and the Current Account," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(59), pages 369-84, December.
  5. Huang, Chao-Hsi & Lin, Kenneth S., 1993. "Deficits, government expenditures, and tax smoothing in the United States: 1929-1988," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 317-339, June.
  6. Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-85, March.
  7. Campbell, John Y., 1999. "Asset prices, consumption, and the business cycle," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 19, pages 1231-1303 Elsevier.
  8. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-73, November.
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