Intertemporal Consumption Smoothing and Capital Mobility: Evidence from Australia
This paper examines the optimality of international capital flows to Australia, a persistent net importer of capital, during its post-capital controls period 1984-99. The evolution of Australia's current account balance is compared against a benchmark derived from an optimising model of intertemporal consumption smoothing. The consumption-smoothing approach to the determination of the current account implies that international capital flows act as a buffer to smooth aggregate consumption in the face of temporary shocks to the economic fundamentals: changes in national cash flow (that is, changes in the level of output, investment or government spending). It is found that in the early 1990s a structural break occurred in the relationship between consumption and national cash flow, which coincides with a switch from debt-financing to equity-financing of the current account deficit. In the decade of the 1990s following this structural break (and unlike the decade of the 1980s which preceded this break), international capital flows to Australia implied a path for consumption which was broadly consistent with expected-utility maximisation under the consumption-smoothing model of the current account. Copyright 2002 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd/University of Adelaide and Flinders University of South Australia
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 41 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0004-900X|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0004-900X|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Moral hazard, asset price bubbles, capital flows, and the East Asian crisis:: the first tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 637-657, August.
- Campbell, John Y, 1987.
"Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-73, November.
- John Y. Campbell, 1986. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 1805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Masao Ogaki & Jonathan David Ostry & Carmen Reinhart, 1995.
"Saving Behavior in Low and Middle-Income Developing Countries; A Comparison,"
IMF Working Papers
95/3, International Monetary Fund.
- Masao Ogaki & Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 38-71, March.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Ogaki, Masao & Ostry, Jonathan, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," MPRA Paper 6978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Ogaki, Masao & Ostry, Jonathan, 1995. "Saving behavior in low- and middle-income developing countries," MPRA Paper 13757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Paul Bergin & Steven Sheffrin, .
"Interest Rates, Exchange Rates And Present Value Models Of The Current Account,"
Department of Economics
97-22, California Davis - Department of Economics.
- Bergin, Paul R & Sheffrin, Steven M, 2000. "Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and Present Value Models of the Current Account," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(463), pages 535-58, April.
- Steven M. Sheffrin & Paul Bergin, 2003. "Interest Rates, Exchange Rates And Present Value Models Of The Current Account," Working Papers 9722, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Cashin, P., 1996.
"Are Australia's Current Account deficits Excessive?,"
Department of Economics - Working Papers Series
533, The University of Melbourne.
- Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C John, 1998. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 346-61, December.
- C. John McDermott & Paul Cashin, 1996. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," IMF Working Papers 96/85, International Monetary Fund.
- Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C John, 1998.
"Testing the Consumption-CAPM in Developing Equity Markets,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 127-41, April.
- Cashin, P. & McDermott, C. J., 1997. "Testing the Consumption-Capm in Developing Equity Markets," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 593, The University of Melbourne.
- Milbourne, Ross & Otto, Glenn, 1992. "Consumption Smoothing and the Current Account," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(59), pages 369-84, December.
- Otto, Glenn, 1992. "Testing a present-value model of the current account: Evidence from US and Canadian time series," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 414-430, October.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1980.
"Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?,"
NBER Working Papers
0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
- Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990.
"Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration,"
Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
- Tom Doan, . "POTESTRESIDS: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Ouliaris-Hansen test for Cointegration on 1st stage residuals," Statistical Software Components RTS00248, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "POTEST: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Ouliaris-Hansen test for Cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTS00247, Boston College Department of Economics.
- repec:att:wimass:9220 is not listed on IDEAS
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1994.
"Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 631-53, October.
- Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992.
"Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts,"
RCER Working Papers
335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
- Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Lim, G C & Kells, Stuart S, 1995. "Portfolio Implications of an Equity Rain in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(215), pages 367-78, December.
- Scott, Louis O, 1985. "The Present Value Model of Stock Prices: Regression Tests and Monte Carlo Results," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 599-605, November.
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:41:y:2002:i:1:p:82-98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.