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A Structural VAR Approach to the Intertemporal Model of the Current Account

Listed author(s):
  • Takashi Kano

The intertemporal current account approach predicts that the current account of a small open economy is independent of global shocks, and that responses of the current account to country-specific shocks depend on the persistence of the shocks. The author shows that these predictions impose cross-equation restrictions (CERS) on a structural vector autoregression (SVAR). To test the CERs, the author develops identification schemes of the SVAR that exploit the orthogonality of the world real interest rate to country-specific shocks as well as the lack of a long-run response of net output to transitory shocks. Tests of the SVAR reveal two puzzling aspects of the Canadian and U.K. current account: (i) the response of the current account to a country-specific transitory shock is too large, and (ii) the fluctuations in the current account are dominated by country-specific transitory shocks that explain almost none of the fluctuations in net output growth.

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File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/wp03-42.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Staff Working Papers with number 03-42.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:03-42
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