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Has international borrowing or lending driven Australia's net capital inflow?


  • Makin, Anthony J.
  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar


Over the recent decades the most significant global imbalances have been between Asia-Pacific economies, with most attention directed to the imbalances of the largest economies, China, Japan and the United States. In contrast, this paper examines how external account imbalances and real long term interest rates are determined in smaller open economies. It first derives the proposition that external imbalances and long term interest rates move together whenever saving-investment shocks are predominantly domestically sourced, but move oppositely when saving-investment shocks mainly emanate abroad. It then shows that in the case of Australia, an Asia-Pacific economy that has borrowed heavily from abroad since the mid 1980's, rising net capital inflow has had a statistically significant negative impact on domestic real interest rates. This suggests that over that time net international lending rather than net foreign borrowing was mainly responsible for the variation in its external imbalance and real interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Makin, Anthony J. & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2013. "Has international borrowing or lending driven Australia's net capital inflow?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 134-143.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:134-143
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2012.09.010

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cavoli, Tony & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2015. "Capital inflows and the interest premium problem: The effects of monetary sterilisation in selected Asian economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-18.
    2. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Untangling the causal relationship between government budget and current account deficits in OECD countries: Evidence from bootstrap panel Granger causality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 95-104.
    3. Mehmet Behzat Ekinci, 2016. "External Borrowing and Inflation in Turkey Between 2003 and 2015: A Simple Linear Regression Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 45-54.

    More about this item


    Saving; Investment; International borrowing and lending; Australia; Interest rates;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems


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