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Postponing Global Adjustment: An Analysis of the Pending Adjustment of Global Imbalances

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  • Edwin M. Truman

    () (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

Halving the US current account deficit as a share of GDP is likely to impose a burden of $2,350 per capita on the United States, which explains why US policymakers want to postpone adjustment. The rest of the world relies on the economic stimulus of a widening US external deficit, which explains why they are not eager to see global adjustment. The paper examines three scenarios of exchange rate adjustments, calls on the Federal Reserve to take more account of the external deficit in its words and policy actions, and familiarly notes the need for US fiscal adjustment as part of an efficient adjustment process. Complementary policies are required in the rest of the world. The paper discusses the pattern of recent international capital flows and proposes an international reserve diversification standard to remove some of the uncertainty about the management of foreign exchange reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Edwin M. Truman, 2005. "Postponing Global Adjustment: An Analysis of the Pending Adjustment of Global Imbalances," Working Paper Series WP05-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp05-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable U.S. Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters,in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stein, Jerome L., 2007. "United States current account deficits: A stochastic optimal control analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1321-1350, May.
    2. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H., 2006. "The U.S. current account deficit and the expected share of world output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 1063-1093, July.
    3. Francis Cripps & Alex Izurieta & Ajit Singh, 2011. "Forum 2011," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 42(1), pages 228-261, January.
    4. Beth A Simmons, 2006. "The future of central bank cooperation," BIS Working Papers 200, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Cripps, Francis & Izurieta, Alex & Singh, Ajit, 2011. "Global imbalances, under-consumption and overborrowing: the state of the world economy & future policies," MPRA Paper 39049, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Makin, Anthony J. & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2013. "Has international borrowing or lending driven Australia's net capital inflow?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 134-143.
    7. Makin, Anthony J. & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "Have US external imbalances been determined at home or abroad?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 520-531, May.
    8. Edwin M. Truman & Anna Wong, 2006. "The Case for an International Reserve Diversification Standard," Working Paper Series WP06-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    9. Cripps, F. & Izurieta, A. & Singh, A., 2011. "Global Imbalances, Under-Consumption and Over-Borrowing: The State of the World Economy and Future Policies," Working Papers wp419, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    10. Charles Engel, 2005. "The US Current Account Deficit: A Re-examination of the Role of Private Saving," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    11. Anders Aslund, 2006. "Russia's Challenges as Chair of the G-8," Policy Briefs PB06-3, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    12. Catherine L. Mann & Katharina Plück, 2005. "The US Trade Deficit: A Disaggregated Perspective," Working Paper Series WP05-11, Peterson Institute for International Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; fiscal policy; current account adjustment; open economy macro; central banks and their policies; foreign exchange;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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