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Patterns of Current Account Adjustment – Insights from Past Experience

Author

Listed:
  • Bernardina Algieri
  • Thierry Bracke

Abstract

The paper examines episodes of current account adjustment in individual economies. A central finding is that these episodes are very divergent and can be usefully classified, on the basis of cluster analysis, in three groups. A majority of cases is characterised by internal adjustment, exhibiting slowing domestic demand growth. In some cases, the adjustment was mainly external, facilitated by an exchange rate depreciation but without economic slowdown. Finally, some cases involved a crisis-like combination of a severe slowdown and a significant currency depreciation. Using a multinomial logit, we find that this classification of episodes helps improve the predictability of current account adjustment.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernardina Algieri & Thierry Bracke, 2007. "Patterns of Current Account Adjustment – Insights from Past Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series 2029, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2029
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp2029.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ben Smit & Christelle Grobler & Carmen Nel, 2014. "Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals: Potential Macroeconomic Consequences for South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(4), pages 616-627, December.
    2. Theofilakou, Nancy & Stournaras, Yannis, 2012. "Current account adjustments in OECD countries revisited: The role of the fiscal stance," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 719-734.
    3. Hickey, Ronan, 2007. "How Sustainable are Global Imbalances?," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 85-119, October.
    4. Ehmer, Philipp, 2014. "The impact of diverging economic structure on current account imbalances in the euro area," Wittener Diskussionspapiere zu alten und neuen Fragen der Wirtschaftswissenschaft 27/2014, Witten/Herdecke University, Faculty of Management and Economics.
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6913 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Antonis Adam & Panos Hatzipanayotou & Thomas Moutos, 2015. "Labour Market Regulation, Fiscal Consolidation, and the Success of Current Account Adjustments," DEOS Working Papers 1517, Athens University of Economics and Business.

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