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Persistence of current-account disequilibria and real exchange-rate misalignments

Author

Listed:
  • Blaise Gnimassoun

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Valérie Mignon

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper aims at studying whether the persistence of the gap between the observed current-account position and its equilibrium value nonlinearly depends on real exchange-rate misalignments. Estimating a panel smooth transition regression model on a sample of 22 industrialized countries, we find evidence for this hypothesis, showing that persistence of current-account imbalances strongly depends on the deviation of the real exchange rate from its long-term equilibrium. More specifically, while there is no persistence in cases of currency undervaluation or weak overvaluation, persistence tends to augment for overvaluations higher than 11%. In addition, whereas disequilibria are persistent even for very low overvaluations in the euro area, persistence is observed only for overvaluations higher than 14% for non-eurozone members.
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Suggested Citation

  • Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2015. "Persistence of current-account disequilibria and real exchange-rate misalignments," Post-Print hal-01385952, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01385952
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2016. "A Closer Look at EU Current Accounts," CEIS Research Paper 393, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 11 Aug 2016.
    2. Koutchogna Kokou Assogbavi, 2021. "Global Account Imbalances since the Global FinancialCrisis: Determinants, Implications and Challenges forthe Global Economy," Working Papers hal-03258293, HAL.
    3. Prabheesh, K.P. & Prakash, Branesh & Vuniivi, Viliame, 2023. "Assessment of Fiji’s exchange rate," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1282-1305.
    4. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2022. "A panel VAR analysis of macro-financial imbalances in the EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    5. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2017. "Dutch disease, real effective exchange rate misalignments and their effect on GDP growth in EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 350-370.
    6. Jorge Carrera & Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon & Romain Restout, 2021. "Currency Misalignments and Exchange Rate Regimes in Latin American Countries: A Trade-Off Issue," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 141, pages 71-102.
    7. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-51, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    8. Michael Fidora & Claire Giordano & Martin Schmitz, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 71-107, February.
    9. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," Working Papers hal-04141675, HAL.
    10. Fisera, Boris, 2024. "Exchange rates and the speed of economic recovery: The role of financial development," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(1).
    11. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2021. "Does backward participation in global value chains affect countries’ current account position?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(1), pages 65-86, February.
    12. Amir H. Mozayani & Sanaz Parvizi, 2016. "Exchange Rate Misalignment in Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC): Focusing on Iran," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 20(2), pages 261-276, Spring.
    13. Fišera, Boris & Horváth, Roman, 2022. "Are exchange rates less important for trade in a more globalized world? Evidence for the new EU members," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    14. Dramane Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2018. "The tale of two international phenomena: International migration and global imbalances," Working Papers 2018-02, CEPII research center.
    15. Yin-Wong Cheung & Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2020. "A Tale of Two Surplus Countries: China and Germany," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 131-158, February.
    16. Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2018. "Do global value chains amplify global imbalances?," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-38, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    17. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2017. "Exchange rate misalignments and the external balance under a pegged currency system," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 949-974, November.
    18. Dessie Ambaw & Madhavi Pundit & Arief Ramayandi & Nicholas Sim, 2023. "Real exchange rate misalignment and business cycle fluctuations in the Asia‐Pacific," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 164-189, June.
    19. Camba-Crespo Alfonso & García-Solanes José & Torrejón-Flores Fernando, 2022. "Current-Account Imbalances, Real Exchange-Rate Misalignments, and Output Gaps," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 57-72, January.
    20. Rikhotso, Prayer & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2021. "Exchange rate misalignments and current accounts in BRICS countries," MPRA Paper 107973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Tii N. Nchofoung & Nathanael Ojong & Ladifatou Ndi Gbambie Gachili, 2025. "Exchange rate misalignment and financial development in Africa," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 552-569, January.
    22. Mahraddika, Wishnu, 2020. "Real exchange rate misalignments in developing countries: The role of exchange rate flexibility and capital account openness," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-24.

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