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The End of Large Current Account Deficits, 1970-2002: Are There Lessons for the United States?

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  • Sebastian Edwards

Abstract

The future of the U.S. current account -- and thus of the U.S. dollar -- depend on whether foreign investors will continue to add U.S. assets to their investment portfolios. However, even under optimistic scenarios, the U.S. current account deficit is likely to go through a significant reversal at some point in time. This adjustment may be as large of 4% to 5% of GDP. In order to have an idea of the possible consequences of this type of adjustment, I have analyzed the international evidence on current account reversals using both non-parametric techniques as well as panel regressions. The results from this empirical investigation indicate that major current account reversals have tended to result in large declines in GDP growth. I also analyze the large U.S. current account adjustment of 1987-1991.

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  • Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "The End of Large Current Account Deficits, 1970-2002: Are There Lessons for the United States?," NBER Working Papers 11669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11669
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    2. Shibata, Akihisa & Shintani, Mototsugu & Tsuruga, Takayuki, 2019. "Current account dynamics under information rigidity and imperfect capital mobility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 153-176.
    3. Sorin Calea & Ioana Mihut & Mihaela Lutas, 2014. "The Sustainability Of Romania’S External Debt During The Recent Financial Crisis," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 6(2), pages 46-56, July.
    4. Edwards, Sebastian, 2006. "The U.S. current account deficit: Gradual correction or abrupt adjustment?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 629-643, September.
    5. Campa, Jose Manuel & Gavilan, Angel, 2011. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 205-228, February.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008, pages 9-62, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Kristin Forbes & Ida Hjortsoe & Tsvetelina Nenova, 2017. "Current Account Deficits During Heightened Risk: Menacing or Mitigating?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(601), pages 571-623, May.
    8. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "External Imbalances in an Advanced, Commodity-Exporting Country: The Case of New Zealand," NBER Working Papers 12620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Sobański Konrad, 2019. "‘Dark matter’ in the external sector of the United States," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 5(2), pages 86-108, June.
    10. Roberto Alvarez, 2011. "Export transitions," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 221-250.
    11. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    12. Riccardo Fiorentini & Guido Montani, 2012. "The New Global Political Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14443.
    13. Patrick A. Imam, 2008. "Rapid Current Account Adjustments: Are Microstates Different?," IMF Working Papers 2008/233, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Jean-Pierre Andre, 2011. "Economic Imbalances: New Zealand's Structural Challenge," Treasury Working Paper Series 11/03, New Zealand Treasury.
    15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008, pages 9-62, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. William D. Craighead & David R. Hineline, 2013. "As the Current Account Turns: Disaggregating the Effects of Current Account Reversals in Industrial Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(12), pages 1516-1541, December.
    17. De Santis, Roberto A. & Lührmann, Melanie, 2006. "On the determinants of external imbalances and net international portfolio flows: a global perspective," Working Paper Series 651, European Central Bank.
    18. Chris Hunt, 2008. "Financial turmoil and global imbalances: the end of Bretton Woods II?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 71, September.
    19. Daniela Bragoli & Piero Ganugi & Giancarlo Ianulardo, 2013. "Gini’s transvariation analysis: an application on financial crises in developing countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(1), pages 153-174, February.
    20. Gulgun Cigdem, 2017. "Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in Turkey and an Ampirical Analysys for Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(12), pages 253-259, December.
    21. Andrew Filardo, 2009. "Short-Term Policy Responses to the International Financial Crisis and Risks to Sustainable Medium-Term Policy Frameworks in Asia : Complications Arising from Enduring Global Imbalances," EABER Working Papers 22862, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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