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Export Transitions

  • Roberto Álvarez

In this paper I use a broad multi-country dataset to analyze divergent experiences in export orientation over time. First, I use transition probability matrices for comparing how countries move across the world distribution for different time periods. I find that transitions toward high export ratios have been mainly experienced by Asian countries, but also some reformers like Mexico and Chile have been able to increase their exports significantly. Countries making transitions toward low export ratios are mainly from Africa, but these countries only constitute a half of economies with bad export performance. I focus then on which structural factors may be important for long-run transitions. The results suggest that more open economies and those with better institutions are more likely to move to high export ratios in the long-run. Finally, I explore within-country experiences for identifying episodes of export transitions. Using an event study methodology, I find a very weak association between export transitions and economic growth and investment rate. In contrast, my results suggest that transitions are potentially driven by improvements in financial development. Finally, favorable terms of trade, increments in productivity, and reductions in exchange rate distortions are not found to be a catalyst for export transitions. l II) could be helpful on this task.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 418.

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Date of creation: May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:418
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  1. Caroline Freund & Frank Warnock, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Industrial Countries: The Bigger They Are, The Harder They Fall?," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 133-168 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical Cross-Section Dynamics in Economic Growth," FMG Discussion Papers dp154, Financial Markets Group.
  3. Guillermo Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  4. David Hummels & Peter J. Klenow, 2005. "The Variety and Quality of a Nation's Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 704-723, June.
  5. Proudman, J. & Redding, S., 1998. "Evolving Patterns of International Trade," Economics Papers 144, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  6. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
  7. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," NBER Working Papers 10152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "The end of large current account deficits : 1970-2002 : are there lessons for the United States?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 205-268.
  9. Stephen Redding & Anthony Venables, 2004. "Geography and Export Performance: External Market Access and Internal Supply Capacity," NBER Chapters, in: Challenges to Globalization: Analyzing the Economics, pages 95-130 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," NBER Working Papers 11170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Redding, Stephen, 2002. "Specialization dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 299-334, December.
  12. Braun, Matias & Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Trade liberalization, capital account liberalization and the real effects of financial development," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 730-761, September.
  13. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February.
  14. Maria Mancusi, 2001. "Technological specialization in industrial countries: Patterns and dynamics," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 137(4), pages 593-621, December.
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