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Surges and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

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  • Sula, Ozan

Abstract

A characteristic of many of the recent emerging market currency crises is a preceding surge in capital inflows and their reversals or ‘sudden stops’ during the crises. The empirical investigation of 38 emerging market economies between 1990 and 2003 reveals that a surge in capital inflows significantly increases the probability of a sudden stop. In addition, a surge accompanied by a high current account deficit or an appreciated real exchange rate is more likely to be associated with a sudden stop. The paper also finds that a surge that is dominated by private loans and portfolio flows rather than direct investment has a higher probability to end with a sudden stop.

Suggested Citation

  • Sula, Ozan, 2006. "Surges and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:383
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Levan Efremidze & John Rutledge & Thomas D. Willett, 2016. "Capital Flow Surges As Bubbles: Behavioral Finance And Mckinnon’S Over-Borrowing Syndrome Extended," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(02), pages 1-27, June.
    2. Seung-Gwan Baek & Chi-Young Song, 2016. "On the Determinants of Surges and Stops in Foreign Loans: An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 405-445, July.
    3. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Sudden stops: Are global and local investors alike?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 122-142.
    4. Martijn J. Burger & Elena I. Ianchovichina, 2017. "Surges and stops in greenfield and M&A FDI flows to developing countries: analysis by mode of entry," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(2), pages 411-432, May.
    5. Vogel, Ursula & Winkler, Adalbert, 2010. "Foreign banks and financial stability in emerging markets: Evidence from the global financial crisis," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 149, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    6. Sula, Ozan & Willett, Thomas D., 2009. "The reversibility of different types of capital flows to emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 296-310, December.
    7. Levan Efremidze & Samuel M. Schreyer & Ozan Sula, 2011. "Sudden stops and currency crises," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 304-321, November.
    8. repec:kap:openec:v:28:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11079-016-9418-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Manuel R. Agosin & Juan Díaz-Maureira & Mohit Karnani, 2016. "Sudden stops of capital flows: Do foreign assets behave differently from foreign liabilities?," Working Papers wp436, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    10. Masyita Crystallin & Levan Efremidze & Sungsoo Kim & Wahyu Nugroho & Ozan Sula & Thomas Willett, 2015. "How Common are Capital Flows Surges? How They are Measured Matters -a Lot," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 663-682, September.
    11. Rogelio Mercado Jr., "undated". "Domestic Factors and Episodes of Gross Capital Inflows," Working Papers wp26, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    12. Jason Rastovski, 2016. "The Changing Relationship between Banking Crises and Capital Inflows," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 514-530, May.
    13. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2017. "Greece’s Three-Act Tragedy: A Simple Model of Grexit vs. Staying Afloat inside the Single Currency Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 297-318, April.
    14. Rogelio Mercado Jr., 2016. "Not All Surges of Gross Capital Inflows Are Alike," Trinity Economics Papers tep2016, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    15. Gabriela Contreras & Alfredo Pistelli & Mariel Siravegna, 2012. "Determinantes e Impacto de Episodios de Reversión Abrupta de Flujos de Capitales: ¿Es Distinto un Sudden Stop de un Sudden Flight?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 665, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Yanping Zhao & Jakob Haan & Bert Scholtens & Haizhen Yang, 2014. "Sudden Stops and Currency Crashes," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 660-685, September.
    17. Davide Furceri & Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2012. "Episodes of Large Capital Inflows, Banking and Currency Crises, and Sudden Stops," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-35, April.
    18. Ayachi Feith & Bhar Youssef, 2012. "Intolerable Surges, Exchange Rate Regimes and Sudden Stops of Capital Inflows," Book Chapters, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    19. Rogelio Mercado Jr., "undated". "Domestic Factors and Episodes of Gross Capital Inflows," Working Papers wp26, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    20. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2014. "Ride the wild surf : an investigation of the drivers of surges in capital inflows," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6753, The World Bank.
    21. Puspa D. Amri & Greg M. Richey & Thomas D. Willett, 2016. "Capital Surges and Credit Booms: How Tight is the Relationship?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 637-670, September.
    22. Joseph Joyce, 2011. "Financial Globalization and Banking Crises in Emerging Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 875-895, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; Sudden stops; Surges in capital flows; Emerging Markets; private loans; portfolio flows; foreign direct investment;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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