IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ememar/v10y2009i4p296-310.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The reversibility of different types of capital flows to emerging markets

Author

Listed:
  • Sula, Ozan
  • Willett, Thomas D.

Abstract

We investigate whether some types of capital flows are more likely to reverse than others during currency crises. Earlier statistical testing has yielded conflicting results on this issue. We argue that the problem with the earlier studies is that the degree of variability of capital flows during normal or inflow periods may give little clue to their behavior during crises and it is the latter that is most important for policy. Using data for 35 emerging economies for 1990 through 2003, we confirm that direct investment is the most stable category, but find that contrary to much popular analysis, private loans on average are as reversible as portfolio flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Sula, Ozan & Willett, Thomas D., 2009. "The reversibility of different types of capital flows to emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 296-310, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:10:y:2009:i:4:p:296-310
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1566-0141(09)00027-2
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claessens, Stijn & Dooley, Michael P & Warner, Andrew, 1995. "Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 153-174, January.
    2. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops, and Current Account Reversals," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 73-120 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Tuomas Komulainen & ) & Johanna Lukkarila, 2003. "What drives financial crises in emerging markets?," Macroeconomics 0304010, EconWPA.
    4. Han Kim, E. & Singal, Vijay, 2000. "The fear of globalizing capital markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 183-198, November.
    5. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-484, December.
    6. Domac, Ilker & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad, 2003. "Banking crises and exchange rate regimes: is there a link?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 41-72, October.
    7. Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Ricardo Hausmann, 2000. "Is FDI a Safer Form of Financing?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1318, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 35-54, November.
    9. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2006. "Sudden stops and the Mexican wave: Currency crises, capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 225-248, February.
    10. KOMULAINEN Tuomas LUKKARILA Johanna, "undated". "What Drives Financial Crises in Emerging Markets?," EcoMod2003 330700082, EcoMod.
    11. Ozan Sula, 2010. "Surges and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 589-605, September.
    12. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Hot money, accounting labels and the permanence of capital flows to developing countries: an empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 337-364, August.
    13. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
    14. Paolo Mauro & Andrei A Levchenko, 2006. "Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect From Sudden Stops?," IMF Working Papers 06/202, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
    16. Chuhan, Punam & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Popper, Helen, 1996. "International capital flows : do short-term investment and direct investment differ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1669, The World Bank.
    17. Alberto Gabriele & Korkut Boratav & Ashok Parikh, 2007. "Instability and Volatility of Capital Flows to Developing Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Trade Liberalisation Impact on Growth and Trade in Developing Countries, chapter 10, pages 273-305 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Komulainen, Tuomas & Lukkarila, Johanna, 2003. "What drives financial crises in emerging markets?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 248-272, September.
    19. Dani Rodrik & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Short-Term Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Komulainen, Tuomas & Lukkarila, Johanna, 2003. "What drives financial crises in emerging markets?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    21. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2015. "L’intégration financière internationale : Théories, évidences, et leçons des expériences récentes [International financial integration: Theory, evidence and lessons from recent experiences]," Research papers & Policy papers 1508, OCP Policy Center.
    2. repec:bla:reviec:v:25:y:2017:i:2:p:262-278 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Oeking, Anne & Zwick, Lina, 2015. "On the relation between capital flows and the current account," Ruhr Economic Papers 565, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Augusto de la Torre & Guillermo Beylis & Jaime de Piniés, "undated". "International Flows to Latin America--Rocking the Boat? LAC Semiannual Report, April 2014," World Bank Other Operational Studies 18029, The World Bank.
    5. Gabriela Contreras & Francisco Pinto, 2014. "Vulnerability to Changes in External Financing Due to Global Factors," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 734, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Gajewski, Krzysztof & Olszewski, Krzysztof & Pawłowska, Małgorzata & Rogowski, Wojciech & Tchorek, Grzegorz & Zięba, Jolanta, 2012. "Integracja finansowa w Europie po wprowadzeniu euro. Przegląd literatury
      [Financial integration in Europe after the introduction of the euro. A literature overview]
      ," MPRA Paper 42482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Nordine Abidi & Burcu Hacibedel & Mwanza Nkusu, 2016. "Changing Times for Frontier Markets; A Perspective from Portfolio Investment Flows and Financial Integration," IMF Working Papers 16/177, International Monetary Fund.
    8. repec:eee:jimfin:v:82:y:2018:i:c:p:97-119 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:eee:intfin:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:142-154 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Christopher F. Baum & Madhavi Pundit & Arief Ramayandi, 2017. "Capital Flows and Financial Stability in Emerging Economies," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 936, Boston College Department of Economics.
    11. Ho-don Yan & Cheng-lang Yang, 2012. "Are there different linkages of foreign capital inflows and the current account between industrial countries and emerging markets?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 25-54, August.
    12. Natalia Nehrebecka & Michał Brzozowski, 2016. "Wpływ niepewności makroekonomicznej na oszczędności przedsiębiorstw," Gospodarka Narodowa, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 51-69.
    13. Dan OLTEANU, 2011. "A Survey On The Drivers And Mechanisms Of Financial Crises," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 33(2(bis)(42), pages 73-100, December.
    14. Yaman O. Erzurumlu & Giray Gozgor, 2014. "Co-movement of Foreign Direct and Portfolio Investments in Central and Eastern Europe," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(3), pages 457-464.
    15. Iwona Maciejczyk-Bujnowicz, 2016. "Capital Flows in European Union on the Basis of International Investment Position – Selected Aspects," Copernican Journal of Finance & Accounting, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 5(1), pages 157-172.
    16. Cavoli, Tony, 2014. "Substitutes or complements? The interactions between components of capital inflows for Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31, pages 32-41.
    17. Logan Rangasamy, 2014. "Capital Flows: The South African Experience," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(4), pages 551-566, December.
    18. Joyce, Joseph, 2015. "External Balance Sheets as Countercyclical Crisis Buffers," MPRA Paper 66039, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:10:y:2009:i:4:p:296-310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620356 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.