IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ememar/v10y2009i4p296-310.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The reversibility of different types of capital flows to emerging markets

Author

Listed:
  • Sula, Ozan
  • Willett, Thomas D.

Abstract

We investigate whether some types of capital flows are more likely to reverse than others during currency crises. Earlier statistical testing has yielded conflicting results on this issue. We argue that the problem with the earlier studies is that the degree of variability of capital flows during normal or inflow periods may give little clue to their behavior during crises and it is the latter that is most important for policy. Using data for 35 emerging economies for 1990 through 2003, we confirm that direct investment is the most stable category, but find that contrary to much popular analysis, private loans on average are as reversible as portfolio flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Sula, Ozan & Willett, Thomas D., 2009. "The reversibility of different types of capital flows to emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 296-310, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:10:y:2009:i:4:p:296-310
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1566-0141(09)00027-2
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Domac, Ilker & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad, 2003. "Banking crises and exchange rate regimes: is there a link?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 41-72, October.
    2. Fernández-Arias, Eduardo & Hausmann, Ricardo, 2000. "Is FDI a Safer Form of Financing?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1318, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. repec:zbw:bofitp:2003_005 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jung Sik Kim & Jie Li & Ramkishen S. Rajan & Ozan Sula & Thomas D. Willett, 2007. "Reserve Adequacy In Asia Revisited: New Benchmarks Based On The Size And Composition Of Capital Flow," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 23, pages 131-158.
    5. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2006. "Sudden stops and the Mexican wave: Currency crises, capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 225-248, February.
    6. Chuhan, Punam & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Popper, Helen, 1996. "International capital flows : do short-term investment and direct investment differ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1669, The World Bank.
    7. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
    9. Graham Bird & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2002. "Does FDI Guarantee the Stability of International Capital Flows? Evidence from Malaysia," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 20(2), pages 191-202, May.
    10. Stephany Griffith-Jones, 1998. "Global Capital Flows," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-26912-9, December.
    11. Komulainen, Tuomas & Lukkarila, Johanna, 2003. "What drives financial crises in emerging markets?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2003, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    12. Alberto Gabriele & Korkut Baratav & Ashok Parikh, 2000. "Instability and Volatility of Capital Flows to Developing Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(8), pages 1031-1056, August.
    13. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 35-54, November.
    14. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
    15. Mr. Andrea Bubula & Ms. Inci Ötker, 2003. "Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone?," IMF Working Papers 2003/223, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Claessens, Stijn & Dooley, Michael P & Warner, Andrew, 1995. "Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 153-174, January.
    17. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops, and Current Account Reversals," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 73-120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Tuomas Komulainen & ) & Johanna Lukkarila, 2003. "What drives financial crises in emerging markets?," Macroeconomics 0304010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Han Kim, E. & Singal, Vijay, 2000. "The fear of globalizing capital markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 183-198, November.
    20. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-484, December.
    21. John Williamson, 2005. "Curbing the Boom-Bust Cycle: Stabilizing Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa75, October.
    22. Ozan Sula, 2010. "Surges and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 589-605, September.
    23. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Hot money, accounting labels and the permanence of capital flows to developing countries: an empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 337-364, August.
    24. Dani Rodrik & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Short-Term Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. John Williamson, 2001. "Issues Regarding the Composition of Capital Flows," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 19(1), pages 11-29, March.
    26. KOMULAINEN Tuomas LUKKARILA Johanna, 2010. "What Drives Financial Crises in Emerging Markets?," EcoMod2003 330700082, EcoMod.
    27. Mr. Paolo Mauro & Mr. Andrei A Levchenko, 2006. "Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect From Sudden Stops?," IMF Working Papers 2006/202, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
    29. Komulainen, Tuomas & Lukkarila, Johanna, 2003. "What drives financial crises in emerging markets?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 248-272, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ozan Sula, 2010. "Surges and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 589-605, September.
    2. Ayachi Feith & Bhar Youssef, 2012. "Intolerable Surges, Exchange Rate Regimes and Sudden Stops of Capital Inflows," Book Chapters, in: Paulino Teixeira & António Portugal Duarte & Srdjan Redzepagic & Dejan Eric (ed.), European Integration Process in Western Balkan Countries, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 178-191, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    3. Licchetta, Mirko, 2009. "Common determinants of currency crises: role of external balance sheet variables," Bank of England working papers 366, Bank of England.
    4. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126, Decembrie.
    5. Ralph De Haas & Neeltje Van Horen, 2013. "Running for the Exit? International Bank Lending During a Financial Crisis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 244-285.
    6. Ralph De Haas & Neeltje Van Horen, 2013. "Running for the Exit? International Bank Lending During a Financial Crisis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 244-285.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    8. Ari, Ali, 2008. "An Early Warning Signals Approach for Currency Crises: The Turkish Case," MPRA Paper 25858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    9. Apoteker, Thierry & Barthelemy, Sylvain, 2005. "Predicting financial crises in emerging markets using a composite non-parametric model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 363-375, December.
    10. Nakatani, Ryota, 2018. "Real and financial shocks, exchange rate regimes and the probability of a currency crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 60-73.
    11. Pierre-Richard Agenor, 2004. "Orderly exits from adjustable pegs and exchange rate bands," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 83-108.
    12. Fabio Filipozzi & Kersti Harkmann, 2010. "The Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe: the Measures and Determinants of the Exchange Market Pressure Index and the Money Market Pressure Index," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 2(2).
    13. Yanping Zhao & Jakob Haan & Bert Scholtens & Haizhen Yang, 2014. "Sudden Stops and Currency Crashes," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 660-685, September.
    14. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2016. "Exchange Arrangements and Speculative Attacks: Is there a link?," MPRA Paper 72359, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Keskinsoy, Bilal, 2017. "Taxi, Takeoff and Landing: Behavioural Patterns of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 78129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Gozgor, Giray & Erzurumlu, Yaman O., 2010. "Causality relations between foreign direct investment and portfolio investment volatility," MPRA Paper 34352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Hattari, Rabin & S. Rajan, Ramkishen, 2011. "How Different are FDI and FPI Flows?: Distance and Capital Market Integration," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 26, pages 499-525.
    18. Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2006. "Are emerging market currency crises predictable? A test," Working Paper Series 571, European Central Bank.
    19. Ali Ari & Raif Cergibozan, 2016. "A Comparison of Currency Crisis Dating Methods: Turkey 1990-2014," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 12(3), pages 19-37.
    20. Aidi, Wafa, 2013. "Optima exchange crisis regression and twin crisis: Evidences for some MENA countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 306-311.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows Private loans Portfolio flows Foreign direct investment Currency crises;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:10:y:2009:i:4:p:296-310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620356 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.