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Reversibility of Different Types of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

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  • Sula, Ozan
  • Willett, Thomas D.

Abstract

Most of the emerging market currency crises are accompanied by sharp reversals or “sudden stops” of capital inflows. We investigated whether some types of capital flows are more likely to reverse than others during these crises. Foreign direct investment is usually considered stable while portfolio investment is frequently depicted as the least reliable type of flow. Recent statistical testing has yielded conflicting results on this issue. We argue that a major problem with recent studies is that the degree of variability of capital flows during normal or inflow periods may give little clue to their behavior during crises and it is the latter that is most important for policy. Using data for 35 emerging economies for 1990 through 2003, we confirm that direct investment is the most stable category, but find that private loans on average are as reversible as portfolio flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Sula, Ozan & Willett, Thomas D., 2006. "Reversibility of Different Types of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:384
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/384/1/MPRA_paper_384.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claessens, Stijn & Dooley, Michael P & Warner, Andrew, 1995. "Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 153-174, January.
    2. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-484, December.
    4. John Williamson, 2005. "Curbing the Boom-Bust Cycle: Stabilizing Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa75, October.
    5. Jung Sik Kim & Jie Li & Ramkishen S. Rajan & Ozan Sula & Thomas D. Willett, 2007. "Reserve Adequacy In Asia Revisited: New Benchmarks Based On The Size And Composition Of Capital Flow," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 23, pages 131-158.
    6. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2006. "Sudden stops and the Mexican wave: Currency crises, capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 225-248, February.
    7. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Hot money, accounting labels and the permanence of capital flows to developing countries: an empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 337-364, August.
    8. Chuhan, Punam & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Popper, Helen, 1996. "International capital flows : do short-term investment and direct investment differ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1669, The World Bank.
    9. Alberto Gabriele & Korkut Boratav & Ashok Parikh, 2007. "Instability and Volatility of Capital Flows to Developing Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Trade Liberalisation Impact on Growth and Trade in Developing Countries, chapter 10, pages 273-305 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
    11. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 35-54, November.
    12. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Seung-Gwan Baek & Chi-Young Song, 2016. "On the Determinants of Surges and Stops in Foreign Loans: An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 405-445, July.
    2. Levan Efremidze & Samuel M. Schreyer & Ozan Sula, 2011. "Sudden stops and currency crises," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 304-321, November.
    3. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Duasa, Jarita & Kassim, Salina, 2008. "Hot money and economic performance: An empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 12470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. G. Andrew Karolyi & David T. Ng & Eswar S. Prasad, 2013. "The Coming Wave," Working Papers 082013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    6. repec:spr:portec:v:16:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10258-016-0126-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Rabin Hattari & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2011. "How Different are FDI and FPI Flows?: Does Distance Alter the Composition of Capital Flows?," Working Papers 092011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    8. Gozgor, Giray & Erzurumlu, Yaman O., 2010. "Causality relations between foreign direct investment and portfolio investment volatility," MPRA Paper 34352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Hattari, Rabin & S. Rajan, Ramkishen, 2011. "How Different are FDI and FPI Flows?: Distance and Capital Market Integration," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 26, pages 499-525.
    10. World Bank, 2012. "Using Lebanon's Large Capital Inflows to Foster Sustainable Long-Term Growth," World Bank Other Operational Studies 2727, The World Bank.
    11. Yanping Zhao & Jakob Haan & Bert Scholtens & Haizhen Yang, 2014. "Sudden Stops and Currency Crashes," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 660-685, September.
    12. Apanard P. Angkinand & Thomas D. Willett, 2011. "Exchange rate regimes and banking crises: the channels of influence investigated," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 256-274, July.
    13. Linyue Li & Nan Zhang & Thomas D. Willett, 2012. "Measuring macroeconomic and financial market interdependence: a critical survey," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 128-145, May.
    14. Jung Sik Kim & Jie Li & Ramkishen S. Rajan & Ozan Sula & Thomas D. Willett, 2007. "Reserve Adequacy In Asia Revisited: New Benchmarks Based On The Size And Composition Of Capital Flow," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 23, pages 131-158.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; currency crises; volatility of capital flows; reversibility of capital flows; Emerging Markets; private loans; portfolio flows; foreign direct investment;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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