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Banking crises and exchange rate regimes - Is there a link?

  • Domac, Ilker
  • Martinez-Peria, Maria Soledad

The authors investigate the links between banking crises, and exchange rate regimes, using a comprehensive data set that includes developed, and developing countries over the last two decades. In particular, they examine whether the choice of exchange rate regime affects the likelihood, cost, and duration of banking crises. Empirical results indicate that adopting a fixed exchange rate, diminishes the likelihood of a banking crisis in developing countries. But once a banking crisis occurs, its real costs - in terms of forgone output growth - are higher for countries with more stringent exchange rate requirements. The duration of crises seems not to be affected by exchange rate policy. Instead, it is influenced mainly by the size of the credit boom before the crisis.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2489.

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Date of creation: 30 Nov 2000
Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2489
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  1. Barry Eichengreen, 1998. "Exchange Rate Stability and Financial Stability," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 569-608, January.
  2. Baxter, M. & Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Business Cycles And The Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," RCER Working Papers 140, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  3. Jonathan David Ostry & Anne Marie Gulde & Atish R. Ghosh & Holger C. Wolf, 1995. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," IMF Working Papers 95/121, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2001. "Fixing for your life," MPRA Paper 13873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Rizzo, Jean-Marc, 1998. "The economic determinants of the choice of an exchange rate regime: a probit analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 283-287, June.
  7. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
  8. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
  9. Honohan, Patrick & Klingebiel, Daniela, 2000. "Controlling the fiscal costs of banking crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2441, The World Bank.
  10. Richard N. Cooper, 1999. "Exchange rate choices," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 43(Jun), pages 99-136.
  11. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Early Warning System: An Assessment of Vulnerability," MPRA Paper 24579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Heller, H Robert, 1978. "Determinants of Exchange Rate Practices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 308-21, August.
  13. Morris Goldstein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 100, January.
  14. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 5819, Inter-American Development Bank.
  15. Joshua D. Angrist, 1991. "Instrumental Variables Estimation of Average Treatment Effects in Econometrics and Epidemiology," NBER Technical Working Papers 0115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
  17. Glick, R. & Hutchison, M., 1999. "Banking and Currency Crises: How Common are Twins?," Papers pb99-07, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
  18. Richard N. Cooper, 1999. "Exchange Rate Choices," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1877, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  19. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
    [The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]
    ," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Frederic S. Mishkin & Miguel A. Savastano, 2000. "Monetary Policy Strategies for Latin America," NBER Working Papers 7617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 1999. "Inversión de las corrientes de capital, tipo de cambio y dolarización
    [Capital Flow Reversals, the Exchange Rate Debate, and Dollarization]
    ," MPRA Paper 13692, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Crisis financieras en Asia y Latinoamerica: ahora y entonces
    [Financial Crises in Asia and Latin America Different: Then and Now]
    ," MPRA Paper 13735, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  23. Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin & Carmen Pagés-Serra & Ernesto H. Stein, 1999. "Financial Turmoil and Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," Research Department Publications 4170, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  25. Eichengreen, Barry, 2002. "When to Dollarize," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 1-24, February.
  26. Huw Pill & Mahmood Pradhan, 1995. "Financial Indicators and Financial Change in Africa and Asia," IMF Working Papers 95/123, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
  28. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  29. repec:idb:wpaper:318 is not listed on IDEAS
  30. Collins, Susan M., 1996. "On becoming more flexible: Exchange rate regimes in Latin America and the Caribbean," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 117-138, October.
  31. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
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