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Banking and Currency Crises: How Common Are The Twins?

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  • Reuven GLICK

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

  • Michael HUTCHISON

    (Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz)

Abstract

The coincidence of having both banking and currency crises associated with the Asian financial crisis has drawn renewed attention to causal and common factors linking the two phenomena. In this paper, we analyse the incidence and underlying causes of banking and currency crises in 90 industrial and developing countries over the 1975-97 period. We measure the individual and joint ("twin") occurrence of bank and currency crises and assess the extent to which each type of crisis provides information about the likelihood of the other. We find that the twin crisis phenomenon is most common in financially liberalised emerging markets. The strong contemporaneous correlation between currency and bank crises in emerging markets is robust, even after factoring in a host of macroeconomic and financial structure variables and possible simultaneity bias. We also find that the occurrence of banking crises provides a good leading indicator of currency crises in emerging markets. The converse does not hold true, however, as currency crises are not a useful leading indicator of the onset of future banking crises. We conjecture that the openness of emerging markets to international capital flows, combined with a liberalised financial structure, make them particularly vulnerable to twin crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Reuven GLICK & Michael HUTCHISON, 2000. "Banking and Currency Crises: How Common Are The Twins?," Working Papers 012000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:012000
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    Cited by:

    1. Elahi, M.A., 2011. "Essays on financial fragility," Other publications TiSEM 882f55bb-10dc-4e49-95ef-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Ranciere, Romain & Tornell, Aaron & Westermann, Frank, 2006. "Decomposing the effects of financial liberalization: Crises vs. growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3331-3348, December.
    3. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192(1), pages 68-83, April.
    4. Degryse, H.A. & Elahi, M.A. & Penas, M.F., 2012. "Determinants of Banking System Fragility : A Regional Perspective," Discussion Paper 2012-015, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica & Gupta, Poonam, 2006. "Inside the crisis: An empirical analysis of banking systems in distress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 702-718, August.
    6. Kwan, Simon H., 2003. "Operating performance of banks among Asian economies: An international and time series comparison," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 471-489, March.
    7. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante, 2002. "Measuring and predicting currency disturbances in Croatia: the “signals” approach," MPRA Paper 83137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2002.
    8. Candelon, Bertrand & Carare, Alina & Miao, Keith, 2016. "Revisiting the new normal hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 5-31.
    9. Bertrand Candelon & Franz Palm, 2010. "Banking and Debt Crises in Europe: The Dangerous Liaisons?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 81-99, April.
    10. Robert-Paul Berben & Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Requirements for successful currency regimes: the Dutch and Thai experiences," MEB Series (discontinued) 2002-16, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
    11. Klomp, Jeroen, 2010. "Causes of banking crises revisited," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 72-87, March.
    12. Eric Santor, 2007. "Contagion and the composition of Canadian banks' foreign asset portfolios: do financial crises matter?," CGFS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Research on global financial stability: the use of BIS international financial statistics, volume 29, pages 32-52 Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Rashmi Shankar, 2007. "Balance Sheet Effects, Growth, and Crises," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 720-734, September.
    14. Shankar, Rashmi, 2005. "Insurance and liquidity : panel evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3648, The World Bank.

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