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Money and credit, competitiveness, and currency crises in Asia and Latin America

  • Reuven Glick
  • Ramon Moreno

This paper analyzes the role of money, credit, trade and competitiveness variables in signaling currency crises in a sample of East Asian and Latin American countries over the period 1972:01 - 1997:10. Bivariate tests suggest that money and credit, as well as trade and competitiveness variables, appear to behave differently around crisis episodes than they do during periods of tranquility, suggesting that they may help signal currency crises. In multivariate probit regressions, which allow for the identification of marginal contributions of individual variables, reductions in real domestic credit and in foreign reserves as well as appreciation in the real exchange rate imply increases in the probability of a crisis. Real exchange rate appreciation appears to play a greater role in predicting currency crises in East Asia, while foreign reserve losses play a greater role in Latin America.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Pacific Basin Working Paper Series with number 99-01.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpb:99-01
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  1. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December.
  2. Corsetti, G. & Pesenti, P. & Roubini, N., 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Papers 343, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  4. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February.
  6. Morris Goldstein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 100, December.
  7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of death foretold," International Finance Discussion Papers 545, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 253-316.
  10. Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  12. Ramon Moreno, 1995. "Macroeconomic behavior during periods of speculative pressure or realignment: evidence from Pacific Basin economies," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 95-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  13. Chan Huh & Kenneth Kasa, 1997. "A dynamic model of export competition, policy coordination and simultaneous currency collapse," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 97-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  14. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1996. "Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 5," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_96-1, January.
  15. Ronald I. McKinnon & Huw Pill, 1996. "Credible Liberalizations and International Capital Flows: The "Overborrowing Syndrome"," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 5, pages 7-50 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Ramon Moreno, 1998. "Was there a boom in money and credit prior to East Asia's recent currency crisis?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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