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Was there a boom in money and credit prior to East Asia's recent currency crisis?

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  • Ramon Moreno

Abstract

This paper assesses the relationship between money and credit and episodes of sharp depreciation in East Asia by (i) examining growth rates of money and credit variables around depreciation episodes; (ii) estimating the impact of money and credit variables on the probability of a share depreciation episode using logit models; (iii) evaluating the signals contained in money and credit variables prior to episodes of sharp currency depreciation. Reserve money grew rapidly prior to the 1997 currency crisis in East Asia. However, signs of a money or credit boom based on other indicators were mixed. The 1997 episodes differ from East Asia's past experience in a number of ways. Rapid growth in the M2 multiplier and in the ratio of M2 to foreign reserves, positive deviations of reserve money from trend, and declines or sluggish growth in reserve money and in foreign reserves, helped predict episodes of sharp depreciation up to mid-1996. While some of these indicators indicated the possibility of a crisis in some of the countries prior to the 1997 episodes, they did not consistently predict the sharp depreciations that occurred.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramon Moreno, 1998. "Was there a boom in money and credit prior to East Asia's recent currency crisis?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpb:98-05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," Research Department Publications 4026, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    2. repec:idb:wpaper:318 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ramon Moreno, 1995. "Macroeconomic behavior during periods of speculative pressure or realignment: evidence from Pacific Basin economies," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," CEPR Discussion Papers 1349, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November.
    7. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    8. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6067, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Glick, R. & Moreno, R., 1999. "Money and Credit, Competitiveness, and Currency Crises in Asia and Latin America," Papers 99-01, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
    10. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," Research Department Publications 4026, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    11. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Gary Chamberlain, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 225-238.
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    Cited by:

    1. Reuven Glick & Michael M. Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    2. Andrea Bubula & Inci Ötker, 2003. "Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone?," IMF Working Papers 03/223, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Ramon Moreno, 1999. "Depreciation and recessions in East Asia," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 27-40.
    4. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno, 1999. "Money and credit, competitiveness, and currency crises in Asia and Latin America," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 99-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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    Keywords

    Financial crises - Asia ; Asia ; East Asia;

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