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The Asian Currency Crises: Vulnerability, Contagion, or Unsustainability

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  • Cartapanis, Andre
  • Dropsy, Vincent
  • Mametz, Sophie

Abstract

The Asian currency crises have been introduced by many economists as evidence that almost any country could be vulnerable to speculative attacks and to contagion effects, even with apparently good economic fundamentals. These financial crises have also been interpreted by other economists as rational market reactions to the unsustainability of domestic macroeconomic policies or structural weaknesses. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the relative importance of macroeconomic unsustainability, financial vulnerability, and crisis contagion in a model that explains and predicts the Asian currency crises. Out-of-sample forecasts based on two-stage panel and logit regressions provide evidence of a pure contagion effect, which significantly worsened the crises. They also show that Indonesia was the only one of the six Asian nations examined (India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Thailand) that was in an unsustainable economic situation, and that the other five nations were only vulnerable to a currency crisis. Copyright 2002 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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  • Cartapanis, Andre & Dropsy, Vincent & Mametz, Sophie, 2002. "The Asian Currency Crises: Vulnerability, Contagion, or Unsustainability," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 79-91, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:10:y:2002:i:1:p:79-91
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    Cited by:

    1. Chang Woon Nam, 2008. "What Happened to Korea Ten Years Ago?," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(4), pages 69-73, December.
    2. Klaus Abberger & Biswa Nath Bhattacharyay & Chang Woon Nam & Gernot Nerb & Siegfried Schönherr, 2014. "How Can the Crisis Vulnerability of Emerging Economies Be Reduced?," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65, October.
    3. André Cartapanis, 2011. "La crise financière et les politiques macroprudentielles. Inflexion réglementaire ou nouveau paradigme ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 62(3), pages 349-382.
    4. Ari, Ali & Dagtekin, Rustem, 2007. "Early Warning Signals of the 2000/2001 Turkish Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 25857, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Dropsy V., 2001. "Emerging Stock Market Liberalization And Currency Crises," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 109-109, January -.
    6. Sophie Brana & Delphine Lahet, 2005. "La propagation des crises financieres dans les pays emergents : la contagion est-elle discriminante ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 103, pages 73-96.
    7. repec:ags:pdcbeh:204182 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
    9. Ali Ari & Rustem Dagtekin, 2007. "Les indicateurs d'alerte de la crise financière de 2000-2001 en Turquie : un modèle de prévision de crise jumelle," Working Papers hal-01295697, HAL.
    10. Cartapanis A. & Herland M., 2001. "Systemic Risk and New International Financial Architecture: Reconciling KEYNES and Neo-Liberalism?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 5-26, January -.
    11. André Cartapanis, 2003. "Vers une prévention macro-prudentielle des crises financières internationales," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 70(1), pages 89-100.
    12. Delphine Lahet, 2009. "Le repositionnement des pays émergents : de la crise financière asiatique de 1997 à la crise de 2008," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 95(2), pages 275-306.
    13. Bergman, U. Michael & Jellingsø, Mads, 2010. "Monetary policy during speculative attacks: Are there adverse medium term effects?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 5-18, March.
    14. Mardi Dungey & Rene Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(2), pages 32-72, Spring/Su.
    15. Vesna Bucevska, 2011. "Growth effect of aid and its volatility: An individual country study in South Asian economies," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 4(1), pages 13-26, January.

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