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Les indicateurs d'alerte de la crise financière de 2000-2001 en Turquie : un modèle de prévision de crise jumelle

Author

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  • Ali Ari

    (LEAD - Laboratoire d'Économie Appliquée au Développement - UTLN - Université de Toulon)

  • Rustem Dagtekin

Abstract

The 2000-2001 Turkish crisis has often been analysed in the literature without a solid econometric basis. This article presents a linear regression model as well as a logit model that enable us to measure the extent to which economic fundamentals and banking variables can account for the outcome of the Turkish crisis. We aim to determine which factors have led Turkey to experience this crisis and to gain deeper insight into its nature.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Ari & Rustem Dagtekin, 2007. "Les indicateurs d'alerte de la crise financière de 2000-2001 en Turquie : un modèle de prévision de crise jumelle," Working Papers hal-01295697, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01295697
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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
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    5. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1997. "The determinants of banking crises : evidence from industrial and developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1828, The World Bank.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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