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Les Indicateurs d'Alerte de la Crise Financière de 2000-2001 en Turquie: Un Modèle de Prévision de Crise Jumelle
[Early Warning Indicators of the 2000-2001 Turkish Financial Crisis: A Twin Crisis Prediction Model]

  • Ari, Ali
  • Dagtekin, Rustem
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    The 2000-2001 Turkish crisis has often been analysed in the literature without a solid econometric basis. This article presents a linear regression model as well as a logit model that enable us to measure the extent to which economic fundamentals and banking variables can account for the outcome of the Turkish crisis. We aim to determine which factors have led Turkey to experience this crisis and to gain deeper insight into its nature.

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/25856/1/MPRA_paper_25856.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 25856.

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    Date of creation: 2007
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    Publication status: Published in Région et Développement 26 (2007): pp. 35-50
    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:25856
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    1. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
    4. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1997. "The determinants of banking crises : evidence from industrial and developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1828, The World Bank.
    5. Fatih Ozatay & Guven Sak, 2003. "Banking Sector Fragility and Turkey’s 2000–01 Financial Crisis," Working Papers 0308, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    6. Cartapanis, Andre & Dropsy, Vincent & Mametz, Sophie, 2002. "The Asian Currency Crises: Vulnerability, Contagion, or Unsustainability," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 79-91, February.
    7. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises; Evidence From Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
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