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Signals from housing and lending booms

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  • Bunda, Irina
  • Ca' Zorzi, Michele

Abstract

The contribution of this paper is to revisit the Early Warning System (EWS) literature by analysing selected episodes of financial market crisis, i.e. those preceded by a spell of credit and real estate expansions. The aim is to disentangle instances when this constitutes a natural phenomenon associated with a process of financial development and innovation from those where it constitutes a worrisome signal. We identify economic variables that have leading indicator properties, thus helping to distinguish between “benign” episodes from those likely ending with downward pressures on the exchange rate or even a fully-fledged banking crisis. We find that a large current account deficit, a fall in price competitiveness, strong real growth and high public debt-to-GDP ratio increase the probability that a lending or housing boom would be accompanied by financial market tensions shortly after the peak. JEL Classification: E32, F31, F37

Suggested Citation

  • Bunda, Irina & Ca' Zorzi, Michele, 2009. "Signals from housing and lending booms," Working Paper Series 1094, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091094
    Note: 343031
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ciarlone, Alessio, 2011. "Housing wealth effect in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 399-417.
    3. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2013. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 92-106.
    4. Ali Ari & Raif Cergibozan, 2016. "A Comparison of Currency Crisis Dating Methods: Turkey 1990-2014," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 12(3), pages 19-37.
    5. Chan Lily & Ng Heng Tiong & Rishi Ramchand, 2012. "A cluster analysis approach to examining Singapore’s property market," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Property markets and financial stability, volume 64, pages 43-53, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Bouvatier, Vincent & Delatte, Anne-Laure & Rehault, Pierre-Nicolas, 2022. "Measuring credit procyclicality: A new database," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    7. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2013. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 92-106.
    8. Kauko, Karlo, 2014. "How to foresee banking crises? A survey of the empirical literature," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 289-308.
    9. Eva Schlenker & Robert Maderitsch, 2015. "Monitoring household liquidity constraints across Europe: a panel approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 75-91, March.
    10. Kalatie, Simo & Laakkonen, Helinä & Tölö, Eero, 2015. "Indicators used in setting the countercyclical capital buffer," Research Discussion Papers 8/2015, Bank of Finland.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Chung‐Hua Shen & Hsing‐Hua Hsu, 2022. "The determinants of Asian banking crises—Application of the panel threshold logit model," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 248-277, March.
    13. Nihat Tak & Adem Gök, 2022. "Dating currency crises and designing early warning systems: Meta‐possibilistic fuzzy index functions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3773-3790, July.
    14. Naceur, Sami Ben & Candelon, Bertrand & Lajaunie, Quentin, 2019. "Taming financial development to reduce crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    15. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Baptiste Meunier & Sylvain Pouget, 2021. "Web Scraping Housing Prices in Real-time: the Covid-19 Crisis in the UK," Working papers 827, Banque de France.
    16. Alessio Ciarlone, 2012. "Wealth effects in emerging economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 843, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Liu, Chao & Zheng, Ying & Zhao, Qi & Wang, Chao, 2020. "Financial stability and real estate price fluctuation in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    18. Eero Tölö & Helinä Laakkonen & Simo Kalatie, 2018. "Evaluating Indicators for Use in Setting the Countercyclical Capital Buffer," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 51-112, March.
    19. Neményi, Judit & Oblath, Gábor, 2012. "Az euró bevezetésének újragondolása [Rethinking Hungary s prospective adoption of the Euro]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 569-684.
    20. Ms. Evridiki Tsounta & Mr. Camilo E Tovar Mora & Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu, 2012. "Latin America: Vulnerabilities Under Construction?," IMF Working Papers 2012/193, International Monetary Fund.
    21. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Zhou, Zhengyi, 2018. "Housing market sentiment and intervention effectiveness: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 91-110.
    23. Alessia Bruzzo & Marco Mazzoli, 2018. "An Empirical Investigation on the European Housing Market Prices," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 12, pages 29-42, May.
    24. Czerniak, Adam & Borowski, Jakub & Boratyński, Jakub & Rosati, Dariusz, 2020. "Asset price bubbles in a monetary union: Mind the convergence gap," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 288-302.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit booms; Early Warning System; Financial crises; house prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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