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Designing an early warning system for debt crises

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  • Ciarlone, Alessio
  • Trebeschi, Giorgio

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  • Ciarlone, Alessio & Trebeschi, Giorgio, 2005. "Designing an early warning system for debt crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 376-395, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:6:y:2005:i:4:p:376-395
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    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Visco, Ignazio, 1978. "On obtaining the right sign of a coefficient estimate by omitting a variable from the regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 115-117, February.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    4. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
    5. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2003. "Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with An Application to Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/106, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Sy, Amadou N.R., 2004. "Rating the rating agencies: Anticipating currency crises or debt crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2845-2867, November.
    7. Amadou N Sy & Andrea Pescatori, 2004. "Debt Crises and the Development of International Capital Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/44, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine Pattillo, 2005. "Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(3), pages 1-5.
    9. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Enrica Detragiache & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity; Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 01/2, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dawood, Mary & Horsewood, Nicholas & Strobel, Frank, 2017. "Predicting sovereign debt crises: An Early Warning System approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 16-28.
    2. Dufrénot, Gilles & Paret, Anne-Charlotte, 2019. "Power-law distribution in the external debt-to-fiscal revenue ratios: Empirical evidence and a theoretical model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 341-359.
    3. Sebastián Nieto-Parra, 2009. "Who Saw Sovereign Debt Crises Coming?," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2009), pages 125-169, August.
    4. Alessio Ciarlone & Giorgio Trebeschi, 2006. "A Multinomial Approach to Early Warning Systems for Debt Crises," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 588, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Bunda, Irina & Ca' Zorzi, Michele, 2010. "Signals from housing and lending booms," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Ciarlone, Alessio & Piselli, Paolo & Trebeschi, Giorgio, 2009. "Emerging markets' spreads and global financial conditions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 222-239, April.
    7. Svetlana Cerovic & Kerstin Gerling & Andrew Hodge & Paulo Medas, 2018. "Predicting Fiscal Crises," IMF Working Papers 18/181, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Enderlein, Henrik & Trebesch, Christoph & von Daniels, Laura, 2012. "Sovereign debt disputes: A database on government coerciveness during debt crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 250-266.
    9. Jarmulska, Barbara, 2020. "Random forest versus logit models: which offers better early warning of fiscal stress?," Working Paper Series 2408, European Central Bank.
    10. Jelena Laušev & Aleksandar Stojanović & Nataša Todorović, 2011. "Determinants Of Debt Rescheduling In Eastern European Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 56(188), pages 7-31, January –.
    11. Fink, Gerhard & Haiss, Peter & Oeberseder, Magdalena & Rainer, Wolfgang, 2007. "Dollar depreciation--Euro pain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 739-763.
    12. Hongjin Xiang & Feng Zongxian & Liu Xuyuan, 2011. "Research on early warning system for antidumping petition: based on panel data logit model," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 158-172, October.
    13. Gilles Dufrénot & Anne-Charlotte Paret Onorato, 2016. "Power-Law Distribution in the Debt-to-Fiscal Revenue Ratio: Empirical Evidence and a Theoretical Model," AMSE Working Papers 1627, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    14. Lang, Michael & Schmidt, Paul G., 2016. "The early warnings of banking crises: Interaction of broad liquidity and demand deposits," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-29.
    15. Fioramanti, Marco, 2008. "Predicting sovereign debt crises using artificial neural networks: A comparative approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 149-164, June.
    16. Layal Mansour, 2013. "International Reserves versus External Debts : Can International reserves avoid future Financial Crisis in indebted Countries ?," Working Papers halshs-00864899, HAL.
    17. Boonman, T.M. & Jacobs, J.P.A.M. & Kuper, G.H., 2013. "Sovereign debt crises in Latin America," Research Report 13016-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    18. Marialuz Moreno Badia & Paulo Medas & Pranav Gupta & Yuan Xiang, 2020. "Debt Is Not Free," IMF Working Papers 20/1, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Hlaing, Su Wah & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2018. "Financial crisis and financial policy reform: Crisis origins and policy dimensions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 224-243.
    20. Jamshed Y. Uppal, 2017. "External Debt Management in Pakistan: A Market-Based Assessment," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 22(Special E), pages 25-51, September.
    21. Fu, Junhui & Zhou, Qingling & Liu, Yufang & Wu, Xiang, 2020. "Predicting stock market crises using daily stock market valuation and investor sentiment indicators," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

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