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Autocorrelation-Corrected Standard Errors in Panel Probits: An Application to Currency Crisis Prediction

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  • Mr. Andrew Berg
  • Rebecca N. Coke

Abstract

Many estimates of early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis have reported incorrect standard errors because of serial correlation in the context of panel probit regressions. This paper documents the magnitude of the problem, proposes and tests a solution, and applies it to previously published EWS estimates. We find that (1) the uncorrected probit estimates substantially underestimate the true standard errors, by up to a factor of four; (2) a heteroskedasicity- and autocorrelation-corrected (HAC) procedure produces accurate estimates; and (3) most variables from the original models remain significant, though substantially less so than had been previously thought.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Andrew Berg & Rebecca N. Coke, 2004. "Autocorrelation-Corrected Standard Errors in Panel Probits: An Application to Currency Crisis Prediction," IMF Working Papers 2004/039, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/039
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Candelon, Bertrand & Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2014. "Currency crisis early warning systems: Why they should be dynamic," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1016-1029.
    3. Bertrand Candelon & Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin, 2012. "How to Evaluate an Early-Warning System: Toward a Unified Statistical Framework for Assessing Financial Crises Forecasting Methods," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(1), pages 75-113, April.
    4. Ali, Amjad & Ur Rehman, Hafeez, 2015. "Macroeconomic Instability and Its Impact on Gross Domestic Product: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 71037, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Huiwen Lai & Eric C. Y. Ng, 2020. "On business cycle forecasting," Frontiers of Business Research in China, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 1-26, December.
    6. Sondermann, David & Zorell, Nico, 2019. "A macroeconomic vulnerability model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2306, European Central Bank.
    7. González, M. & Minguez, R., 2005. "The Method Of Simulated Maximum Likelihood For The Estimaton Of Dynamic Ordered Probit: An Application To Country-Risk For Non-Developed Countries," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(3), pages 99-133.
    8. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans‐Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2010. "Asset Price Misalignments and the Role of Money and Credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 377-407, December.
    9. Jianping Shi & Yu Gao, 2010. "A study on KLR financial crisis early-warning model," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(2), pages 254-275, June.
    10. Stijn Ferrari & Mara Pirovano & Wanda Cornacchia, 2015. "Identifying early warning indicators for real estate-related banking crises," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 08, European Systemic Risk Board.
    11. Cipollini, Andrea & Fiordelisi, Franco, 2012. "Economic value, competition and financial distress in the European banking system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3101-3109.
    12. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2011. "Early Warning Indicators for Asset Price Booms," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-19, June.
    13. Jianping Shi & Yu Gao, 2010. "A Study on KLR Financial Crisis Early-Warning Model," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 5(2), pages 254-275, June.
    14. Gonzalez, M. & Minguez, R., 2005. "A Study of Country-Risk for Non-Developed Countries in 1980-2000," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(1).
    15. Bettina Becker & Stephan G Hall, 2005. "Non-Linear Properties of Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 13, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    16. van den Berg, Jeroen & Candelon, Bertrand & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2008. "A cautious note on the use of panel models to predict financial crises," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 80-83, October.
    17. S. DeVicerte & P. Alvarez & J. Perez & C. Caso, 2008. "Does currency crisis identification matter?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(5), pages 387-395.
    18. Gustavo Peralta, 2015. "Network-based Measures as Leading Indicators of Market Instability: The case of the Spanish Stock," CNMV Working Papers CNMV Working Papers no 59, CNMV- Spanish Securities Markets Commission - Research and Statistics Department.

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