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How to evaluate an Early Warning System? Towards a United Statistical Framework for Assessing Financial Crises Forecasting Methods

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  • Candelon Bertrand
  • Dumitrescu Elena-Ivona
  • Hurlin Christophe

    (METEOR)

Abstract

This paper proposes a new statistical framework originating from the traditional credit-scoring literature, to evaluate currency crises Early Warning Systems (EWS). Based on an assessment of the predictive power of panel logit and Markov frameworks, the panel logit model is outperforming the Markov switching specitcations. Furthermore, the introduction of forward-looking variables clearly improves the forecasting properties of the EWS. This improvement confirms the adequacy of the second generation crisis models in explaining the occurrence of crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Candelon Bertrand & Dumitrescu Elena-Ivona & Hurlin Christophe, 2010. "How to evaluate an Early Warning System? Towards a United Statistical Framework for Assessing Financial Crises Forecasting Methods," Research Memorandum 046, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  • Handle: RePEc:unm:umamet:2010046
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hernández de Cos, Pablo & Nickel, Christiane & Koester, Gerrit & Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2014. "Signalling fiscal stress in the euro area - a country-specific early warning system," Working Paper Series 1712, European Central Bank.
    2. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2011. "Empirics of Currency Crises: A Duration Analysis Approach," Carleton Economic Papers 11-11, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    3. Li, Haixi, 2012. "An Optimal Design of Early Warning Systems: A Bayesian Quickest Change Detection Approach," MPRA Paper 37302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.

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