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Multivariate Dynamic Probit Models: An Application to Financial Crises Mutation

  • Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu


    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS - UO - Université d'Orléans)

  • Bertrand Candelon

    (Economics - Maastricht University)

  • Christophe Hurlin


    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS - UO - Université d'Orléans)

  • Franz C. Palm

    (Maastricht University - univ. Maastricht)

In this paper we propose a multivariate dynamic probit model. Our model can be considered as a non-linear VAR model for the latent variables associated with correlated binary time-series data. To estimate it, we implement an exact maximum-likelihood approach, hence providing a solution to the problem generally encountered in the formulation of multivariate probit models. Our framework allows us to apprehend dynamics and causality in several ways. Furthermore, we propose an impulse-response analysis for such models. An empirical application on three nancial crises is nally proposed.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00630036.

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Date of creation: 28 Jun 2012
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00630036
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  1. Michael J. Dueker, 2003. "Dynamic forecasts of qualitative variables: a Qual VAR model of U.S. recessions," Working Papers 2001-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Lestano & Jan Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper, 2004. "Indicators of financial crises do work! An early-warning system for six Asian countries," International Finance 0409004, EconWPA.
  3. Daniel McFadden, 1987. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models Without Numerical Integration," Working papers 464, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  4. Bussière, Matthieu, 2007. "Balance of payment crises in emerging markets: how early were the “early” warning signals?," Working Paper Series 0713, European Central Bank.
  5. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2011. "An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 86-95.
  6. Bertrand Candelon & Christophe Hurlin & Elena Dumitnescu, 2014. "Currency Crisis Early Warning Systems: Why They should be Dynamic," Working Papers 2014-161, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  7. Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick, 2004. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Contagion," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 67, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  8. von Hagen, Jürgen & Ho, Tai-kuang, 2004. "Money market pressure and the determinants of baning crises," ZEI Working Papers B 20-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  9. Bertrand Candelon & Franz Palm, 2010. "Banking and Debt Crises in Europe: The Dangerous Liaisons?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 81-99, April.
  10. W. R. M. Perraudin & Manmohan S. Kumar & Uma Moorthy, 2002. "Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes," IMF Working Papers 02/7, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Bertrand Candelon & Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin, 2012. "How to evaluate an Early Warning System ?," Working Papers halshs-00450050, HAL.
  12. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
  13. repec:pal:imfstp:v:54:y:2007:i:2:p:306-337 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Luis Ignacio Jácome, 2004. "The Late 1990's Financial Crisis in Ecuador; Institutional Weaknesses, Fiscal Rigidities, and Financial Dollarization At Work," IMF Working Papers 04/12, International Monetary Fund.
  15. van den Berg, Jeroen & Candelon, Bertrand & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2008. "A cautious note on the use of panel models to predict financial crises," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 80-83, October.
  16. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
  17. Lestano & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2004. "A comparison of currency crisis dating methods: East Asia 1970-2002," CCSO Working Papers 200412, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
  18. repec:pal:imfstp:v:45:y:1998:i:1:p:1-48 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
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