IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series

  • Harding, Don
  • Pagan, Adrian

Macroeconometric and financial researchers often use binary data constructed in a way that creates serial dependence. We show that this dependence can be allowed for if the binary states are treated as Markov processes. In addition, the methods of construction ensure that certain sequences are never observed in the constructed data. Together these features make it difficult to utilize static and dynamic Probit models. We develop modeling methods that respect the Markov-process nature of constructed binary data and explicitly deals with censoring constraints. An application is provided that investigates the relation between the business cycle and the yield spread.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://pubs.amstat.org/doi/abs/10.1198/jbes.2009.08005
File Function: full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 29 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 86-95

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:29:i:1:y:2011:p:86-95
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.amstat.org/publications/jbes/index.cfm?fuseaction=main

Order Information: Web: http://www.amstat.org/publications/index.html

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Cashin, P. & McDermott, C. J., 1997. "'Riding on the Sheep's Back': Examining Australia's Dependence on Wool Exports," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 585, The University of Melbourne.
  2. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 2001. "A new approach to measuring financial contagion," Proceedings 743, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Candelon, Bertrand & Piplack, Jan & Straetmans, Stefan, 2008. "On measuring synchronization of bulls and bears: The case of East Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1022-1035, June.
  4. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46.
  5. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
  6. Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 2006. "When do stock market booms occur? the macroeconomic and policy environments of 20th century booms," Working Papers 2006-051, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. Lunde A. & Timmermann A., 2004. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 253-273, July.
  8. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521586115 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. C. John McDermott & Paul Cashin & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 99/155, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
  11. Maheu, John M & McCurdy, Thomas H, 2000. "Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 100-112, January.
  12. Ibbotson, Roger G & Jaffe, Jeffrey F, 1975. ""Hot Issue" Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1027-42, September.
  13. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E, 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521355643 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
  17. de Jong, Robert M. & Woutersen, Tiemen, 2011. "Dynamic Time Series Binary Choice," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(04), pages 673-702, August.
  18. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Michael Dueker, 1997. "Strengthening the case for the yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 41-51.
  20. Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems; A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Baur, Dirk & Schulze, Niels, 2005. "Coexceedances in financial markets--a quantile regression analysis of contagion," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 21-43, April.
  22. Daniel M. Chin & John F. Geweke & Preston J. Miller, 2000. "Predicting turning points," Staff Report 267, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:29:i:1:y:2011:p:86-95. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.