Applying shape and phase restrictions in generalized dynamic categorical models of the business cycle
To match the NBER business cycle features it is necessary to employ Generalised dynamic categorical (GDC) models that impose certain phase restrictions and permit multiple indexes. Theory suggests additional shape restrictions in the form of monotonicity and boundedness of certain transition probabilities. Maximum likelihood and constraint weighted bootstrap estimators are developed to impose these restrictions. In the application these estimators generate improved estimates of how the probability of recession varies with the yield spread.
|Date of creation:||28 Jul 2010|
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- Henderson, Daniel J. & Parmeter, Christopher F., 2009. "Imposing Economic Constraints in Nonparametric Regression: Survey, Implementation and Extension," IZA Discussion Papers 4103, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2009.
"An Econometric Analysis Of Some Models For Constructed Binary Time Series,"
CAMA Working Papers
2009-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 86-95, January.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2009. "An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series," NCER Working Paper Series 39, National Centre for Econometric Research, revised 02 Jul 2009.
- Racine, Jeffrey S., 2008. "Nonparametric Econometrics: A Primer," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(1), pages 1-88, March.
- Jeffrey Racine, 2008. "Nonparametric econometrics: a primer (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 4, pages 7-56, March.
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