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Regional business cycles in New Zealand:Do they exist? What might drive them?

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  • Viv B Hall

    (Victoria University of Wellington)

  • C. John McDermott

    (National Bank of New Zealand)

Abstract

We use National Bank of New Zealand Regional Economic Activity data, to identify and characterise classical business cycle turning points, for New Zealand’s 14 regions and aggregate New Zealand activity. Using Concordance statistic measures, logistic model and GMM estimation methods, meaningful regional business cycles have been identified and a number of significant associations established. All regions exhibit cyclical asymmetry for both durations and amplitudes, and synchronisations between aggregate NZ activity and each region are contemporaneous. The regional cycles rarely die of old age but are terminated by particular events. The regions most highly synchronised with the NZ activity cycle are Auckland, Canterbury, and Nelson- Marlborough; those least so are Gisborne and Southland. Noticeably strong co-movements are evident for certain regions. Geographical proximity matters, and unusually dry conditions can be associated with cyclical downturns in certain regions. There is no discernable evidence of association with net immigration movements, and no significant evidence of regional cycle movements being associated with real national house price cycles. The agriculture-based nature of the New Zealand economy is highlighted by the strong influence of external economic shocks on rural economic performance. In particular, there is considerable evidence of certain regional cycles being associated with movements in New Zealand’s aggregate terms of trade, real prices of milksolids, real dairy land prices and total rural land prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Viv B Hall & C. John McDermott, 2005. "Regional business cycles in New Zealand:Do they exist? What might drive them?," Urban/Regional 0509013, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0509013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
    2. Grimes, Arthur, 2005. "Regional and industry cycles in Australasia: Implications for a common currency," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 380-397, June.
    3. Roberto Casarin & Komla Mawulom Agudze & Monica Billio & Eric Girardin, 2014. "Growth-cycle phases in China�s provinces: A panel Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2014:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    4. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Intra & Inter-Regional Industry Shocks: A New Metric with an Application to Australasian Currency Union," Macroeconomics 0509019, EconWPA.
    5. Suzi Kerr & Joanna Hendy & Emma Brunton & Isabelle Sin, 2005. "The likely regional impacts of an agricultural emissions policy in New Zealand: Preliminary analysis," Working Papers 05_08, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    6. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2006. "The New Zealand Business Cycle: Return To Golden Days?," CAMA Working Papers 2006-21, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Hall, Viv B. & McDermott, C. John, 2015. "Recessions and Recoveries in New Zealand’s Post-Second World War Business Cycles," Working Paper Series 4688, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    8. Jacques Poot & Bill Cochrane & Sandra Baxendine, 2005. "Description and Spatial Analysis of Employment Change in New Zealand Regions 1986-2001," Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers dp-57, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre.
    9. Michelle Poland & David C Maré, 2005. "Defining Geographic Communities," Urban/Regional 0509016, EconWPA.
    10. Tsoulfidis, L. & Dergiades, Th., 2006. "The Inflation-Capacity Utilization Conundrum: Evidence from the Canadian Economy," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2).
    11. Viv B. Hall & John McDermott, 2006. "The Ups and Downs of New Zealand House Prices," Working Papers 06_03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    12. David C Maré, 2005. "Indirect Effects of Active Labour Market Policies," HEW 0509004, EconWPA.
    13. Breandán Ã'hUallacháin, 2008. "Regional growth transition clubs in the United States," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(1), pages 33-53, March.
    14. Yongsung Chang & Sunoong Hwang, 2015. "Asymmetric Phase Shifts in U.S. Industrial Production Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 116-133, March.
    15. repec:taf:nzecpp:v:50:y:2016:i:3:p:261-280 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2016. "Recessions and recoveries in New Zealand's post-Second World War business cycles," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 261-280, September.
    17. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2007:i:4:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Willie Lahari, 2011. "Assessing Business Cycle Synchronisation - Prospects for a Pacific Islands Currency Union," Working Papers 1110, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2011.
    19. Hasan Engin Duran, 2014. "Short-Run Dynamics of Income Disparities and Regional Cycle Synchronization in the U.S," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 292-332, June.
    20. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil II: Die Zyklendatierung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(14), pages 24-31, July.
    21. Koong, Seow Shin & Law, Siong Hook & Ibrahim, Mansor H., 2017. "Credit expansion and financial stability in Malaysia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 339-350.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Classical business cycle; Turning Points; Regional business cycles; Concordance statistics; New Zealand;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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