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Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • David Norman

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Thomas Walker

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

We use a variety of techniques to examine the nature and degree of co-movement among Australian state business cycles. Our results indicate that these cycles move quite closely together, with particularly strong links between the cycles of the larger states. This finding is robust to a range of statistical measures. We also use an unobserved components model to attempt to distinguish the sources of this co-movement. An implication of our model is that the major source of cyclical fluctuation in state activity is shocks that are common to all states. Region-specific shocks appear to have a moderate influence on cyclical fluctuations, while spillovers of such shocks from one state to another seem to play only a minor role. These findings are consistent with the results of recent studies for the United States, Canada and Europe, where common shocks have also been found to dominate regional cyclical activity.

Suggested Citation

  • David Norman & Thomas Walker, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2004-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2007. "Regional business cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(2), pages 167-191, June.
    2. Viv Hall & John McDermott, 2008. "An Unobserved Components Common Cycle For Australia? Implications For A Common Currency," CAMA Working Papers 2008-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Nalini Prasad & Anthony Richards, 2006. "Measuring Housing Price Growth – Using Stratification to Improve Median-based Measures," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; concordance; unobserved components;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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