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The Dutch business cycle: which indicators should we monitor?

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  • Ard den Reijer

Abstract

In this study we construct a business cycle indicator for the Netherlands. The Christiano-Fitzgerald band-pass .lter is employed to isolate the cycle using the de.nition of business cycle frequencies as waves with lengths longer than 3 years and shorter than 11 years. The main advantage of band-pass .ltering is the unambiguous concept of a business cycle, to which the .ltered approximation will eventually converge as more and more observations become available. The coincident business cycle index is based on industrial production, household consumption and sta¢ ng employment. These three variables represent key macroeconomic developments, which are also analysed by both the CEPR and NBER dating committees. For the indicator to be useful in practice, a timely update and therefore a limited publication delay is a crucial constraint. The composite leading index consists of eleven indicators representing di¤erent sectors in the economy: three .nancial series, four business and consumer surveys and four real activity variables, of which two supply- and two demand-related.

Suggested Citation

  • Ard den Reijer, 2006. "The Dutch business cycle: which indicators should we monitor?," DNB Working Papers 100, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:100
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. de Wit, Erik R. & Englund, Peter & Francke, Marc K., 2013. "Price and transaction volume in the Dutch housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 220-241.
    2. Jan-Maarten van Sonsbeek & Raymond H. J. M. Gradus, 2013. "Estimating the effects of recent disability reforms in the Netherlands," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(4), pages 832-855, October.
    3. Ard den Reijer, 2007. "Identifying Regional and Sectoral Dynamics of the Dutch Staffing Labour Cycle," DNB Working Papers 153, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; leading indicators; band-pass .lter; forecasting.;

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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