IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil II: Die Zyklendatierung

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Beate Schirwitz
  • Christian Seiler
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

    ()

Abstract

Nachdem im ersten Teil der Artikelserie die Datenlage im Mittelpunkt stand, analysiert der vorliegende Aufsatz mit Hilfe der Umsatzdaten der Industrie den Konjunkturzyklus in den deutschen Bundesländern. Zunächst werden verschiedene in der Literatur übliche Ansätze zur Definition eines Konjunkturzyklus und zur Abgrenzung seiner Phasen vorgestellt. Der Schwerpunkt der eigenen Analyse wird dann auf den klassischen Konjunkturzyklus gelegt und drei Methoden zu seiner Datierung präsentiert. Nachdem auf Spezifika der Datenbearbeitung eingegangen wurde, folgt die Vorstellung und Diskussion der gefundenen Zyklusdatierungen und damit einer Konjunkturchronik für die Bundesländer. Vergleicht man die Häufigkeit der Zyklen mit denen, die sich für Gesamtdeutschland ergeben, fällt auf, dass in dieser Analyse deutlich mehr Wendepunkte identifiziert wurden.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Schnelldienst/zs-sd-2009/ifosd_2009_14_3.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 62 (2009)
Issue (Month): 14 (07)
Pages: 24-31

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:14:p:24-31
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Poschingerstr. 5, 81679 München

Phone: +49-89-9224-0
Fax: +49-89-985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Keywords: Regionaler Konjunkturzyklus; Wendepunkte; Filterung; Konjunktur; Bundesländer;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2007. "Regional business cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(2), pages 167-191, 06.
  2. Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A real time coincident indicator of the euro area business cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 436, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  3. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
  4. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
  5. Artis, Michael J & Kontolemis, Zenon G & Osborn, Denise R, 1997. "Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(2), pages 249-279, April.
  6. Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese, 2010. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 1024-1034, November.
  7. Beate Schirwitz, 2009. "A comprehensive German business cycle chronology," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 287-301, October.
  8. Boldin, Michael D, 1994. "Dating Turning Points in the Business Cycle," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(1), pages 97-131, January.
  9. Fritsche Ulrich & Kuzin Vladimir, 2005. "Prediction of Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany / Prognose konjunktureller Wendepunkte in Deutschland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 225(1), pages 22-43, February.
  10. Megna, Robert & Xu, Qiang, 2003. "Forecasting the New York State economy: The coincident and leading indicators approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 701-713.
  11. Howard J. Wall, 2007. "Regional business cycle phases in Japan," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 61-80.
  12. repec:ces:ifosdt:v::y:2009:i::p:18-24 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Andrew C. Harvey & Thomas M. Trimbur, 2003. "General Model-Based Filters for Extracting Cycles and Trends in Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 244-255, May.
  14. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, December.
  15. Richard Deitz & Ramon Garcia, 2002. "Regional business cycles in New York State," The Regional Economy of Upstate New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Spr.
  16. Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  17. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Detrending and turning points," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 614-623, April.
  18. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(4), pages 537-565, 09.
  19. Sarah Box, 2005. "Real-Time Data and Business Cycle Analysis in Germany," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(3), pages 337-361.
  20. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 604-616, November.
  21. Erich Langmantel, 1999. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima als Indikator für die Prognose des Bruttoinlandsprodukts," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(16-17), pages 16-21, October.
  22. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil I: Die Datenlage," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(13), pages 18-24, 07.
  23. Theodore M. Crone & Alan Clayton-Matthews, 2005. "Consistent Economic Indexes for the 50 States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 593-603, November.
  24. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Die ifo Kapazitätsauslastung - ein gleichlaufender Indikator der deutschen Industriekonjunktur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(16), pages 15-23, 08.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as
in new window


Cited by:

  1. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2015. "Forecasting GDP at the Regional Level with Many Predictors," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 16(2), pages 226-254, 05.
  2. Christian Seiler, 2012. "Zur Robustheit des ifo Geschäftsklimaindikators in Bezug auf fehlende Werte," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(17), pages 19-22, 09.
  3. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2012. "Prognose des Dienstleistungssektors in Deutschland," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(01), pages 31-39, 01.
  4. Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regional Business Cycles in the Austrian Economy," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 85(11), pages 833-848, November.
  5. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2012. "Die Prognose des Bruttoinlandsprodukts auf regionaler Ebene," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(21), pages 17-23, November.
  6. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil III: Konvergenz," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(15), pages 23-32, 08.
  7. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2011. "Konstruktion von Indikatoren zur Analyse der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität in den Dienstleistungsbereichen," ifo Forschungsberichte, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 55, 02.
  8. Jan Kluge & Anna Montén & Wolfgang Nagl & Beate Schirwitz & Marcel Thum, 2012. "Wachstum und Beschäftigung am Wirtschaftsstandort Dresden," ifo Dresden Studien, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 64.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Access and download statistics

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:14:p:24-31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.