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Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil II: Die Zyklendatierung

  • Beate Schirwitz
  • Christian Seiler
  • Klaus Wohlrabe


Nachdem im ersten Teil der Artikelserie die Datenlage im Mittelpunkt stand, analysiert der vorliegende Aufsatz mit Hilfe der Umsatzdaten der Industrie den Konjunkturzyklus in den deutschen Bundesländern. Zunächst werden verschiedene in der Literatur übliche Ansätze zur Definition eines Konjunkturzyklus und zur Abgrenzung seiner Phasen vorgestellt. Der Schwerpunkt der eigenen Analyse wird dann auf den klassischen Konjunkturzyklus gelegt und drei Methoden zu seiner Datierung präsentiert. Nachdem auf Spezifika der Datenbearbeitung eingegangen wurde, folgt die Vorstellung und Diskussion der gefundenen Zyklusdatierungen und damit einer Konjunkturchronik für die Bundesländer. Vergleicht man die Häufigkeit der Zyklen mit denen, die sich für Gesamtdeutschland ergeben, fällt auf, dass in dieser Analyse deutlich mehr Wendepunkte identifiziert wurden.

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Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 62 (2009)
Issue (Month): 14 (07)
Pages: 24-31

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:14:p:24-31
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