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Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil II: Die Zyklendatierung

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  • Beate Schirwitz
  • Christian Seiler
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

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Abstract

Nachdem im ersten Teil der Artikelserie die Datenlage im Mittelpunkt stand, analysiert der vorliegende Aufsatz mit Hilfe der Umsatzdaten der Industrie den Konjunkturzyklus in den deutschen Bundesländern. Zunächst werden verschiedene in der Literatur übliche Ansätze zur Definition eines Konjunkturzyklus und zur Abgrenzung seiner Phasen vorgestellt. Der Schwerpunkt der eigenen Analyse wird dann auf den klassischen Konjunkturzyklus gelegt und drei Methoden zu seiner Datierung präsentiert. Nachdem auf Spezifika der Datenbearbeitung eingegangen wurde, folgt die Vorstellung und Diskussion der gefundenen Zyklusdatierungen und damit einer Konjunkturchronik für die Bundesländer. Vergleicht man die Häufigkeit der Zyklen mit denen, die sich für Gesamtdeutschland ergeben, fällt auf, dass in dieser Analyse deutlich mehr Wendepunkte identifiziert wurden.

Suggested Citation

  • Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil II: Die Zyklendatierung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(14), pages 24-31, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:14:p:24-31
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2015. "Forecasting GDP at the Regional Level with Many Predictors," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 16(2), pages 226-254, May.
    2. Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regional Business Cycles in the Austrian Economy," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 85(11), pages 833-848, November.
    3. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2012. "Die Prognose des Bruttoinlandsprodukts auf regionaler Ebene," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(21), pages 17-23, November.
    4. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2011. "Konstruktion von Indikatoren zur Analyse der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität in den Dienstleistungsbereichen," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 55, October.
    5. Jan Kluge & Anna Montén & Wolfgang Nagl & Beate Schirwitz & Marcel Thum, 2012. "Wachstum und Beschäftigung am Wirtschaftsstandort Dresden," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 64, October.
    6. Christian Seiler, 2012. "Zur Robustheit des ifo Geschäftsklimaindikators in Bezug auf fehlende Werte," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(17), pages 19-22, September.
    7. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2012. "Prognose des Dienstleistungssektors in Deutschland," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(01), pages 31-39, January.
    8. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil III: Konvergenz," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(15), pages 23-32, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regionaler Konjunkturzyklus; Wendepunkte; Filterung; Konjunktur; Bundesländer;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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