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Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation

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  • Ana Gomez Loscos

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  • M. Dolores Gadea
  • Antonio Montañes

Abstract

This paper sets out a comprehensive framework to identify regional business cycles within Spain and analyses their stylised features and the degree of synchronization present among them and the Spanish economy. We show that the regional cycles are quite heterogeneous although they display some degree of synchronization that can be partially explained using macroeconomic variables. We also propose a dynamic factor model to cluster the regional comovements and find out if the country cycle is simply the aggregation of the regional ones. We find that the Spanish business cycle is not shared by the seventeen regions, but is the sum of the different regional behaviours. The implications derived from our results are useful both for policy makers and analysts.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Gomez Loscos & M. Dolores Gadea & Antonio Montañes, 2011. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," ERSA conference papers ersa11p99, European Regional Science Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p99
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    Cited by:

    1. Dolores Gadea-Rivas, M. & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Bandrés, Eduardo, 2018. "Clustering regional business cycles," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 171-176.
    2. Ana Gómez-Loscos & M. Dolores Gadea & Eduardo Bandres, 2020. "Business cycle patterns in European regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2639-2661, December.
    3. Eduardo Bandrés & María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2017. "Regional business cycles across europe," Occasional Papers 1702, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    4. Concha Artola & María Gil & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun & Alejandro Fiorito & Diego Vila, 2018. "Monitoring the Spanish economy from a regional perspective: main elements of analysis," Occasional Papers 1809, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    5. Julian Ramajo & Miguel A. Marquez & Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, 2013. "Spatio-temporal Analysis of Regional Systems: A Multiregional Spatial Vector Autoregressive Model for Spain," ERSA conference papers ersa13p159, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Maximo Camacho & Matias Pacce & Camilo Ulloa, 2017. "Business cycle phases in Spain," Working Papers 17/20, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    7. Gadea-Rivas, María Dolores & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 222-243.
    8. Alejandro Almeida & Aida Galiano & Antonio A. Golpe & Juan M. Martín, 0. "Regional unemployment and cyclical sensitivity in Spain," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-13.
    9. Francesca Marino, 2013. "Regional fluctuations and national cohesion in the EU12: a pre-Maastricht assessment," SERIES 0048, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised Aug 2013.
    10. Alejandro Almeida & Aida Galiano & Antonio A. Golpe & Juan M. Martín, 2020. "Regional unemployment and cyclical sensitivity in Spain," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 187-199, August.
    11. María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "The evolution of regional economic interlinkages in Europe," Working Papers 1705, Banco de España.
    12. María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Eduardo Bandrés, 2019. "Ciclos económicos y clusters regionales en Europa," Occasional Papers 1914, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    13. Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly & Werner Hölzl, 2016. "Business Cycle Dynamics and Firm Heterogeneity. Evidence for Austria Using Survey Data," WIFO Working Papers 504, WIFO.
    14. Camacho, Máximo & Pacce, Matias & Ulloa, Camilo, 2018. "Regional Business Cycle Phases in Spain/Ciclos económicos regionales en España," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 36, pages 857-896, Septiembr.
    15. Fernando González & Diego Martínez-López, 2021. "El diseño de reglas fiscales en gobiernos subcentrales. El caso de España," Policy Papers 2021-01, FEDEA.
    16. de Lucio, Juan, 2021. "Estimación adelantada del crecimiento regional mediante redes neuronales LSTM," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 49, pages 45-64.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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