IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation

  • Ana Gomez Loscos

    ()

  • M. Dolores Gadea
  • Antonio Montañes

This paper sets out a comprehensive framework to identify regional business cycles within Spain and analyses their stylised features and the degree of synchronization present among them and the Spanish economy. We show that the regional cycles are quite heterogeneous although they display some degree of synchronization that can be partially explained using macroeconomic variables. We also propose a dynamic factor model to cluster the regional comovements and Önd out if the country cycle is simply the aggregation of the regional ones. We Önd that the Spanish business cycle is not shared by the seventeen regions, but is the sum of the di§erent regional behaviours. The implications derived from our results are useful both for policy makers and analysts.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www-sre.wu.ac.at/ersa/ersaconfs/ersa11/e110830aFinal00098.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa11p99.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p99
Contact details of provider: Postal: Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria
Web page: http://www.ersa.org

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
  2. Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy," NBER Working Papers 4005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2008. "The brevity and violence of contractions and expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 738-751, May.
  4. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
  5. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
  6. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2012. "The Propagation of Regional Recessions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 935-947, November.
  7. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary policy in real time," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6401, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 161-224 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  9. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  10. Carlino Gerald & Defina Robert, 1995. "Regional Income Dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 88-106, January.
  11. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 604-616, November.
  12. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green shoots in the euro area. A real time measure," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1026, Banco de Espa�a.
  13. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  15. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina, 1997. "The differential regional effects of monetary policy: evidence from the U.S. States," Working Papers 97-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  16. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2002. "Understanding U.S. regional cyclical comovement: How important are spillovers and common shocks?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 30-41.
  17. Bengoechea, Pilar & Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2006. "A useful tool for forecasting the Euro-area business cycle phases," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 735-749.
  18. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2007. "Determining the Number of Primitive Shocks in Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 52-60, January.
  19. Maravall, Agustin, 1993. "Stochastic linear trends : Models and estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 5-37, March.
  20. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
  21. Máximo Camacho & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Lorena Saiz, 2004. "Are european business cycles close enough to be just one?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0408, Banco de Espa�a.
  22. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2008. "Do European business cycles look like one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2165-2190, July.
  23. George H. Borts, 1960. "Regional Cycles of Manufacturing Employment in the United States, 1914-1953," NBER Chapters, in: Regional Cycles of Manufacturing Employment in the United States, 1914-1953, pages 1-61 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "Rejoinder to James Hamilton," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1695-1698, July.
  25. George H. Borts, 1960. "Regional Cycles of Manufacturing Employment in the United States, 1914-1953," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bort60-1.
  26. Gerald Carlino & Keith Sill, 2001. "Regional Income Fluctuations: Common Trends And Common Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 446-456, August.
  27. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
  28. Ledoit, Olivier & Wolf, Michael, 2003. "Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portfolio selection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 603-621, December.
  29. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  30. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
  31. Michael D. Bordo & Thomas Helbling, 2003. "Have National Business Cycles Become More Synchronized?," NBER Working Papers 10130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
  33. Gerald Carlino & Keith Sill, 1997. "Regional economies: separating trends from cycles," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 19-31.
  34. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Lorena Saiz & Universidad de Murcia, 2006. "Do european business cycles look like one $\_?$," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 175, Society for Computational Economics.
  35. Artis, Michael J & Kontolemis, Zenon G & Osborn, Denise R, 1997. "Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(2), pages 249-79, April.
  36. Bertrand Candelon & Jan Piplack & Stefan Straetmans, 2009. "Multivariate Business Cycle Synchronization in Small Samples," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 715-737, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p99. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gunther Maier)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.