Regional Income Fluctuations: Common Trends And Common Cycles
This paper investigates trend and cycle dynamics in per capita income for the major U.S. regions during the 1956-1995 period. Cointegration and serial correlation common features information are used in jointly decomposing the series into trend and cycle components. We find considerable differences in the volatility of regional cycles. Controlling for differences in volatility, we find a great deal of comovement in the cyclical response for all regions but the Far West. Possible sources underlying differences in regional cycles are explored, such as the share of a region's income accounted for by manufacturing, defense spending as a proportion of a region's income, oil price shocks, and the stance of monetary policy. Somewhat surprisingly, we find that the share of manufacturing in a region seems to account for little of the variation in regional cycles relative to national cycles, but manufacturing share differentially affects trend growth for four of the seven regions studied. © 2001 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Volume (Year): 83 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/|
|Order Information:||Web: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journal-home.tcl?issn=00346535|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:83:y:2001:i:3:p:446-456. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Pollock-Nelson)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.