IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wfo/wpaper/y2015i504.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Business Cycle Dynamics and Firm Heterogeneity. Evidence for Austria Using Survey Data

Author

Listed:
  • Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly
  • Werner Hölzl

Abstract

We study the (macroeconomic) consistency of individual firm-level business tendency survey responses and take firm-level heterogeneity explicitly into account. Adding firm-level, industry- and region-specific structural characteristics allows controlling for additional microeconomic heterogeneity. The dataset we use are the business tendency survey micro data for Austrian manufacturing covering the time period 1996 to 2012. Our results show that firm-specific information embedded in the qualitative survey questions is relevant to understand aggregate business cycle dynamics. For example, the assessment of firms' order book levels, their current degree of capacity utilisation and their production expectations as well as obstacles in their production activities due to insufficient demand show evidence of a significant effect in explaining a firm's change in current production output. However, we do not find clear results with respect to firm size, nor do we find explanatory power of the industry affiliation of a firm and with respect to regional characteristics. We are able to identify heterogeneity in behaviour for cyclical up- and downswings as well as between large and small firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly & Werner Hölzl, 2016. "Business Cycle Dynamics and Firm Heterogeneity. Evidence for Austria Using Survey Data," WIFO Working Papers 504, WIFO.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2015:i:504
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/58568
    File Function: abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel Perez‐Quiros & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1229-1262, June.
    2. Stefan Boes & Rainer Winkelmann, 2006. "Ordered Response Models," Springer Books, in: Olaf Hübler & Jachim Frohn (ed.), Modern Econometric Analysis, chapter 12, pages 167-181, Springer.
    3. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 309-340.
    4. Salvador Barrios & Marius Brülhart & Robert J.R. Elliott & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "A Tale of Two Cycles: Co‐Fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 265-292, June.
    5. Thomas A. Knetsch, 2005. "Evaluating the German Inventory Cycle Using Data from the Ifo Business Survey," Contributions to Economics, in: Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser (ed.), Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis, pages 61-92, Springer.
    6. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Characterising the Business Cycle for Accession Countries," Working Papers 261, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    7. David Berger & Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo Engel, 2003. "Missing Aggregate Dynamics: On the Slow Convergence of Lumpy Adjustment Models," NBER Working Papers 9898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Chad Syverson, 2011. "What Determines Productivity?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 326-365, June.
    9. António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2009. "Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2996-3014.
    10. Roberto Basile & Sergio de Nardis & Carmine Pappalardo, 2014. "Firm heterogeneity and regional business cycles differentials," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(6), pages 1087-1115.
    11. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
    12. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1997. "National Policies and Local Economies: Europe and the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 1632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Werner Hölzl & Gerhard Schwarz, 2014. "Der WIFO-Konjunkturtest: Methodik und Prognoseeigenschaften," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 87(12), pages 835-850, December.
    14. JONATHAN McCARTHY & EGON ZAKRAJSEK, 2007. "Inventory Dynamics and Business Cycles: What Has Changed?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 591-613, March.
    15. William Greene, 2004. "Convenient estimators for the panel probit model: Further results," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 21-47, January.
    16. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
    17. Dedola, Luca & Lippi, Francesco, 2005. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the industries of five OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1543-1569, August.
    18. Marcus Scheiblecker, 2007. "Datierung von Konjunkturwendepunkten in Österreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 80(9), pages 715-730, September.
    19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    20. Christian Pfarr & Andreas Schmid & Udo Schneider, 2011. "Estimating ordered categorical variables using panel data: a generalized ordered probit model with an autofit procedure," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 54(1), pages 7-23.
    21. Chamberlain, Gary, 1982. "Multivariate regression models for panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 5-46, January.
    22. Harrison, Rupert & Jaumandreu, Jordi & Mairesse, Jacques & Peters, Bettina, 2014. "Does innovation stimulate employment? A firm-level analysis using comparable micro-data from four European countries," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 29-43.
    23. Butler, J S & Moffitt, Robert, 1982. "A Computationally Efficient Quadrature Procedure for the One-Factor Multinomial Probit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 761-764, May.
    24. Fritz Breuss, 1984. "Konjunkturindikatoren für die österreichische Wirtschaft," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 57(8), pages 464-492, August.
    25. Richard Etter & Michael Graff, 2004. "Coincident and Leading Indicators of Manufacturing Industry," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(1), pages 109-131.
    26. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    27. Clower, Robert W., 1998. "Three Centuries of Demand and Supply," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 397-410, December.
    28. R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
    29. Bertschek, Irene & Lechner, Michael, 1998. "Convenient estimators for the panel probit model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 329-371, September.
    30. Tatiana Cesaroni, 2011. "The cyclical behavior of the Italian business survey data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 747-768, December.
    31. Carlos Carreira & Filipe Silva, 2010. "No Deep Pockets: Some Stylized Empirical Results On Firms’ Financial Constraints," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 731-753, September.
    32. Ansgar Belke & Jens Heine, 2006. "Specialisation patterns and the synchronicity of regional employment cycles in Europe," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 91-104, November.
    33. Begg,Iain & Henry,Brian, 1998. "Applied Economics and Public Policy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521624145.
    34. Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Österreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 85(11), pages 833-848, November.
    35. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2006. "Testing for sign and amplitude asymmetries using threshold autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 623-654, April.
    36. Peters, Bettina & Dachs, Bernhard & Dünser, Martina & Hud, Martin & Köhler, Christian & Rammer, Christian, 2014. "Firm growth, innovation and the business cycle: Background report for the 2014 competitiveness report," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 110577, September.
    37. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    38. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Engel, Eduardo M.R.A., 2003. "Adjustment is Much Slower than You Think," Center Discussion Papers 28419, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    39. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Sean Holly & Ivan Petrella, 2008. "Factor demand linkages and the business cycle: interpreting aggregate fluctuations as sectoral fluctuations," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0809, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    41. David Berger & Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo Engel, 2003. "Missing Aggregate Dynamics: On the Slow Convergence of Lumpy Adjustment Models," NBER Working Papers 9898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. Steffen Henzel & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2006. "Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method: A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(3), pages 321-352.
    43. Vermeulen, Philip, 2014. "An evaluation of business survey indices for short-term forecasting: Balance method versus Carlson–Parkin method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 882-897.
    44. Koen Frenken & Frank Van Oort & Thijs Verburg, 2007. "Related Variety, Unrelated Variety and Regional Economic Growth," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(5), pages 685-697.
    45. Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2010. "Composite Leading Indicator for the Austrian Economy. Methodology and "Real-time" Performance," WIFO Working Papers 369, WIFO.
    46. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
    47. Hugo Reis, 2005. "Business Cycle at a Sectoral Level: the Portuguese Case," Working Papers w200509, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    48. Nerlove, Marc, 1983. "Expectations, Plans, and Realizations in Theory and Practice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1251-1279, September.
    49. Kaiser, Ulrich & Spitz, Alexandra, 2000. "Quantification of qualitative data using ordered probit models with an application to a business survey in the German service sector," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-58, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    50. Jacques Anas & Monica Billio & Laurent Ferrara & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2008. "A System For Dating And Detecting Turning Points In The Euro Area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(5), pages 549-577, September.
    51. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, July.
    52. Todd E. Clark & Kwanho Shin, 1998. "The sources of fluctuations within and across countries," Research Working Paper 98-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    53. Higson, C. & Holly, S. & Kattuman, P., 2002. "The cross-sectional dynamics of the US business cycle: 1950-1999," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1539-1555, August.
    54. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juergen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regional and Sectoral Business Cycles - Key Features for the Austrian economy," EcoMod2012 4074, EcoMod.
    2. Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Österreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 85(11), pages 833-848, November.
    3. Gatfaoui, Jamel & Girardin, Eric, 2015. "Comovement of Chinese provincial business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 294-306.
    4. Ana Gómez-Loscos & M. Dolores Gadea & Eduardo Bandres, 2020. "Business cycle patterns in European regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2639-2661, December.
    5. Ansgar Belke & Jens Heine, 2007. "On the endogeneity of an exogenous OCA-criterion: specialisation and the correlation of regional business cycles in Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 15-44, March.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Jens Heine, 2006. "Specialisation patterns and the synchronicity of regional employment cycles in Europe," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 91-104, November.
    7. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    8. Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2019. "Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects," Staff Working Papers 19-16, Bank of Canada.
    9. Ageliki Anagnostou & Ioannis Panteladis & Maria Tsiapa, 2015. "Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 615-641, August.
    10. Petr Rozmahel & Ladislava Issever Grochová & Marek Litzman, 2014. "The Effect of Asymmetries in Fiscal Policy Conducts on Business Cycle Correlation in the EU. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 62," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47249, February.
    11. Gammadigbé, Vigninou, 2012. "Les cycles économiques des pays de l'UEMOA: synchrones ou déconnectés? [Business cycles in the WAEMU countries: synchronous or disconnected?]," MPRA Paper 39400, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2012.
    12. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2006. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1687-1706.
    13. Bergman, Michael, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," Working Papers 2004:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    14. G. Bruno & L. Crosilla & P. Margani, 2019. "Inspecting the Relationship Between Business Confidence and Industrial Production: Evidence on Italian Survey Data," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(1), pages 1-24, April.
    15. Eduardo Bandrés & María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2017. "Regional business cycles across europe," Occasional Papers 1702, Banco de España.
    16. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
    17. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    18. Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly & Peter Huber & Petr Rozmahel, 2015. "The Impact of EU Accession on Regional Business Cycle Synchronisation and Sector Specialisation," WIFO Working Papers 494, WIFO.
    19. Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guegan, 2013. "Turning point chronology for the Euro-Zone: A Distance Plot Approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13025r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Oct 2013.
    20. Odia Ndongo, Yves Francis, 2006. "Datation du Cycle du PIB Camerounais entre 1960 et 2003," MPRA Paper 552, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; business tendency surveys; firm-level expectations; ordered probit KP_Berichte_Analysen;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2015:i:504. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Florian Mayr (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wifooat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.