The cyclical behavior of the Italian business survey data
The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate the cyclical features of the main Italian Manufacturing Business Survey indicators using time and frequency domain techniques. In particular, it analyzes the dynamics of each survey variable over time and with respect to different benchmark business cycles. The findings show that important changes have occurred in the periodicity and volatility of Manufacturing Survey data over the years. As expected, the contemporary cross-correlation of each Survey indicator is higher with respect to the industrial production than it is to the GDP cyclical component. Evidence of significant differences in the co-movements between each indicator with respect to GDP and industrial production is found. The cross-spectral analysis seems to reveal the existence of a common periodicity of all cyclical indicators with both the manufacturing and the whole-economy business cycle. This last result confirms the strength of Business Survey data used as short-run policy indicators.
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Volume (Year): 41 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
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