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Introducing the ECB indicator on euro area industrial new orders

Author

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  • de Bondt, Gabe
  • Dieden, Heinz Christian
  • Muzikarova, Sona
  • Vincze, Istvan

Abstract

Following the discontinuation of the official statistics on industrial new orders by Eurostat in mid-2012, this paper introduces the ECB indicator on euro area industrial new orders, which aims to fill the new statistical gaps for euro area total new orders as well as for various breakdowns. Despite the discontinuation of the data collection at European level, a large number of euro area countries are expected to continue with the data collection nationally. For those countries which have discontinued the collection of national data, model-estimates are used in calculating the ECB indicator on euro area industrial new orders. New orders are modelled across EU countries using “soft” data (business opinion surveys) as well as “hard” data (industrial turnover) and applying a common modelling framework. The model determinants significantly explain the monthly growth rates in new orders across approximately 200 estimated equations. Various tests show that the estimates are robust. This paper demonstrates that, besides the leading information content of industrial new orders for euro area industrial production, the monitoring of the ECB indicator on new orders is useful for cross-checking developments in industrial production in real time. JEL Classification: E10, E13, E17

Suggested Citation

  • de Bondt, Gabe & Dieden, Heinz Christian & Muzikarova, Sona & Vincze, Istvan, 2013. "Introducing the ECB indicator on euro area industrial new orders," Occasional Paper Series 149, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:20130149
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    File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp149.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Etter & Michael Graff, 2003. "Estimating and Forecasting Production and Orders in Manufacturing Industry from Business Survey Data: Evidence from Switzerland, 1990-2003," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(IV), pages 507-533, December.
    2. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Bujosa-Brun, Marcos, 2000. "Forecasting OECD industrial turning points using unobserved components models with business survey data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 207-227.
    3. Helmut Herwartz, 2010. "A note on model selection in (time series) regression models - general-to-specific or specific-to-general?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(12), pages 1157-1160.
    4. Tatiana Cesaroni, 2011. "The cyclical behavior of the Italian business survey data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 747-768, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:eneeco:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:234-247 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. David Leuwer & Bernd Süssmuth, 2018. "Assessing Temporary Product-Specific Subsidies: A Time Series Intervention Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 6946, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ECB indicator; euro area; Industrial new orders; leading indicators; real-time analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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